Football model

NFLWeek 6

2026 season · Oct 15 – Oct 19 · 14 games —until next kickoff Updated Sun Oct 18, 11:42 AM ET · trained through 2026 week 6
Live record
Winners18–13–158.1%
Spread16–14–253.3%
Totals16–1650.0%
Value bets (+0.0u)0–0—

32 games graded, all picks logged before kickoff · average closing line value +0.09 pts · backtest spread record 1113–1007

Live record
Winners22–9–171.0%
Spread21–9–270.0%
Totals10–2231.2%

Pure model, no sportsbook input: leans, not bets. 32 games graded, all picks logged before kickoff · backtest spread record 1082–1038

Surest winnerLA85% to winARI @ LA
Biggest spread leanNYG +1.5model 2.0 pts off the lineNO @ NYG
Biggest total leanUnder 43.5model 0.5 pts off the lineNYJ @ NE
Surest winnerLA83% to winARI @ LA
Biggest spread leanATL +1.5model 4.2 pts off the lineCHI @ ATL
Biggest total leanUnder 51.5model 5.4 pts off the lineCHI @ ATL

Thursday October 151 game

8:15 PM ET · Prime Video
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
Seattle Seahawks3-3
Final14proj 21.414proj 21.2
Denver Broncos4-2
Final17proj 19.517proj 21.0
SEA 58%win chance42% DEN
SEA 52%win chance48% DEN
MoneylineSEA −142 · DEN +120
Market lineSEA −2.5
Market total40.5
Projected winnerSEA 58% ✗SEA 52% ✗
Model lineSEA −2.5SEA −0.6
Model total40.541.6
Model pickDEN +2.5 50% ✓DEN +2.5 1.9 pts ✓
Total pickOver 40.5 50% ✗Over 40.5 1.1 pts ✗
Team statsStat edges: SEA 23 · DEN 4 · even 3 SEA leads
SEADEN
Offense
26.8Points / game19.4
360.4Total yards / game280.2
6.07Yards / play4.88
254.4Passing yards / game194.0
8.05Yards / pass attempt5.77
67.3%Completion %59.9%
106.0Rushing yards / game86.2
3.81Yards / carry3.62
1.80Turnovers / game1.00
2.20Sacks allowed / game1.20
Defense
21.0Points allowed / game22.2
283.2Yards allowed / game383.8
4.67Yards / play allowed5.78
182.8Passing yards allowed / game238.6
5.47Yards / pass attempt allowed6.70
100.4Rushing yards allowed / game145.2
3.69Yards / carry allowed4.71
2.20Takeaways / game1.40
2.80Sacks / game2.60
Advanced
+0.006Offense EPA / play+0.003
+0.127Pass offense EPA / play+0.061
−0.187Rush offense EPA / play−0.104
43.5%Offense success rate41.9%
−0.263Defense EPA / play allowed−0.105
−0.253Pass defense EPA allowed−0.131
−0.289Rush defense EPA allowed−0.083
35.1%Defense success rate allowed36.6%
3.8Explosive plays / game3.0
−0.033QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.050
4Days of rest4

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
SEA −2.5 · O/U 43.5
Sportsbook win chance
DEN 43.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
DEN 42.1%
Model-only win chance
DEN 47.7%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadDEN +2.5 (−108)-3.6%pass
TotalOver 40.5 (−110)-4.5%pass
MoneylineSEA −142-2.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

Sunday October 1812 games

9:30 AM ET · NFL Net
Wembley Stadium · London
Houston Texans1-4
Projected20.319.7
Jacksonville Jaguars4-1
Projected22.622.1
HOU 44%win chance56% JAX
HOU 43%win chance57% JAX
MoneylineJAX −142 · HOU +120
Market lineJAX −2.5
Market total42.5
Projected winnerJAX 56% JAX 57%
Model lineJAX −2.6JAX −2.7
Model total42.641.2
Model pickJAX −2.5 51% JAX −2.5 0.2 pts
Total pickOver 42.5 50% Under 42.5 1.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: HOU 10 · JAX 17 · even 3 JAX leads
HOUJAX
Offense
22.0Points / game24.6
378.0Total yards / game363.2
5.96Yards / play6.20
299.0Passing yards / game249.0
7.47Yards / pass attempt8.14
64.0%Completion %67.1%
79.0Rushing yards / game114.2
3.38Yards / carry4.08
0.40Turnovers / game0.60
2.80Sacks allowed / game2.00
Defense
22.4Points allowed / game14.0
356.8Yards allowed / game352.0
5.70Yards / play allowed5.91
278.4Passing yards allowed / game288.2
7.14Yards / pass attempt allowed7.62
78.4Rushing yards allowed / game63.8
3.32Yards / carry allowed2.93
1.00Takeaways / game1.60
3.60Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
−0.064Offense EPA / play+0.117
+0.038Pass offense EPA / play+0.233
−0.271Rush offense EPA / play−0.104
41.3%Offense success rate47.3%
−0.134Defense EPA / play allowed−0.097
−0.066Pass defense EPA allowed−0.061
−0.257Rush defense EPA allowed−0.203
36.5%Defense success rate allowed41.0%
3.3Explosive plays / game3.6
+0.045QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.075
7Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
HOU −1.5 · O/U 41.5
Sportsbook win chance
JAX 56.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
JAX 56.4%
Model-only win chance
JAX 56.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadJAX −2.5 (−115)-4.5%pass
TotalOver 42.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylineJAX −142-3.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · Fox
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
Baltimore Ravens4-1
Projected21.824.3
Cleveland Browns3-2
Projected17.918.8
BAL 64%win chance36% CLE
BAL 69%win chance31% CLE
MoneylineBAL −170 · CLE +142
Market lineBAL −3.0
Market total39.5
Projected winnerBAL 64% BAL 69%
Model lineBAL −3.3BAL −4.6
Model total39.642.7
Model pickBAL −3.0 52% BAL −3.0 1.6 pts
Total pickOver 39.5 50% Over 39.5 3.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: BAL 22 · CLE 4 · even 4 BAL leads
BALCLE
Offense
29.2Points / game18.6
427.0Total yards / game318.8
6.89Yards / play5.42
262.6Passing yards / game224.6
8.87Yards / pass attempt6.68
73.0%Completion %64.4%
164.4Rushing yards / game94.2
5.07Yards / carry3.74
0.60Turnovers / game1.20
2.20Sacks allowed / game3.80
Defense
23.8Points allowed / game22.4
354.4Yards allowed / game380.4
5.72Yards / play allowed5.91
252.4Passing yards allowed / game263.0
6.97Yards / pass attempt allowed6.88
102.0Rushing yards allowed / game117.4
3.95Yards / carry allowed4.48
1.20Takeaways / game1.20
2.00Sacks / game3.20
Advanced
+0.107Offense EPA / play−0.238
+0.162Pass offense EPA / play−0.219
+0.051Rush offense EPA / play−0.288
46.6%Offense success rate33.5%
−0.004Defense EPA / play allowed−0.042
+0.078Pass defense EPA allowed−0.067
−0.187Rush defense EPA allowed−0.033
41.8%Defense success rate allowed42.6%
3.9Explosive plays / game2.6
+0.128QB rating (EPA / dropback)−0.031
7Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
BAL −6.5 · O/U 44.5
Sportsbook win chance
CLE 39.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
CLE 35.8%
Model-only win chance
CLE 31.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadBAL −3.0 (−118)-3.2%pass
TotalOver 39.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylineBAL −170-1.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · CBS
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
Carolina Panthers2-2
Projected21.421.2
Philadelphia Eagles2-3
Projected18.421.6
CAR 61%win chance39% PHI
CAR 50%win chance50% PHI
MoneylineCAR −166 · PHI +140
Market lineCAR −3.0
Market total39.5
Projected winnerCAR 61% CAR 50%
Model lineCAR −2.9PHI −0.8
Model total39.642.5
Model pickPHI +3.0 51% PHI +3.0 3.8 pts
Total pickOver 39.5 50% Over 39.5 3.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: CAR 17 · PHI 10 · even 3 CAR leads
CARPHI
Offense
30.2Points / game18.4
437.2Total yards / game294.2
6.53Yards / play5.09
332.8Passing yards / game202.6
7.69Yards / pass attempt6.03
62.0%Completion %57.4%
104.5Rushing yards / game91.6
4.40Yards / carry3.79
0.75Turnovers / game1.00
2.50Sacks allowed / game2.60
Defense
27.2Points allowed / game22.4
410.8Yards allowed / game376.0
6.13Yards / play allowed5.66
254.2Passing yards allowed / game258.0
6.69Yards / pass attempt allowed7.01
156.5Rushing yards allowed / game118.0
5.40Yards / carry allowed3.99
1.75Takeaways / game0.60
1.75Sacks / game1.20
Advanced
+0.009Offense EPA / play−0.065
+0.108Pass offense EPA / play−0.003
−0.172Rush offense EPA / play−0.171
42.3%Offense success rate38.7%
+0.060Defense EPA / play allowed−0.072
+0.134Pass defense EPA allowed−0.008
−0.072Rush defense EPA allowed−0.183
44.2%Defense success rate allowed40.7%
3.2Explosive plays / game2.5
−0.011QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.036
14Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
PHI −6.5 · O/U 43.5
Sportsbook win chance
PHI 40.0%
Market-adjusted win chance
PHI 38.6%
Model-only win chance
PHI 49.9%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadPHI +3.0 (−108)-2.3%pass
TotalOver 39.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylineCAR −166-2.8%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · Fox
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
Chicago Bears3-2
Projected26.322.0
Atlanta Falcons2-3
Projected25.724.6
CHI 53%win chance47% ATL
CHI 43%win chance57% ATL
MoneylineCHI −120 · ATL +100
Market lineCHI −1.5
Market total51.5
Projected winnerCHI 53% ATL 57%
Model lineCHI −1.0ATL −2.7
Model total51.446.1
Model pickATL +1.5 51% ATL +1.5 4.2 pts
Total pickUnder 51.5 50% Under 51.5 5.4 pts
Team statsStat edges: CHI 10 · ATL 13 · even 7 ATL leads
CHIATL
Offense
23.8Points / game23.8
422.4Total yards / game388.2
5.77Yards / play6.26
249.2Passing yards / game221.4
6.81Yards / pass attempt7.63
65.7%Completion %62.7%
173.2Rushing yards / game166.8
4.73Yards / carry5.05
2.00Turnovers / game1.80
2.20Sacks allowed / game2.20
Defense
19.2Points allowed / game24.4
337.8Yards allowed / game354.6
6.73Yards / play allowed5.42
241.8Passing yards allowed / game274.4
8.51Yards / pass attempt allowed6.21
96.0Rushing yards allowed / game80.2
4.40Yards / carry allowed3.78
1.20Takeaways / game0.80
2.40Sacks / game2.20
Advanced
+0.024Offense EPA / play−0.013
+0.082Pass offense EPA / play+0.002
−0.091Rush offense EPA / play−0.054
45.4%Offense success rate44.5%
−0.021Defense EPA / play allowed−0.053
−0.033Pass defense EPA allowed−0.016
−0.016Rush defense EPA allowed−0.177
42.5%Defense success rate allowed41.1%
3.9Explosive plays / game3.3
+0.042QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.061
7Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
CHI −3.0 · O/U 47.5
Sportsbook win chance
ATL 47.8%
Market-adjusted win chance
ATL 46.6%
Model-only win chance
ATL 57.1%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadATL +1.5 (−112)-2.8%pass
TotalUnder 51.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylineCHI −120-3.2%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · Fox
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
New Orleans Saints1-4
Projected23.221.2
New York Giants3-1-1
Projected23.422.9
NO 51%win chance49% NYG
NO 46%win chance54% NYG
MoneylineNYG −112 · NO −108
Market lineNO −1.5
Market total46.5
Projected winnerNO 51% NYG 54%
Model lineNYG −0.5NYG −2.3
Model total46.143.5
Model pickNYG +1.5 54% NYG +1.5 3.8 pts
Total pickUnder 46.5 51% Under 46.5 3.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: NO 9 · NYG 12 · even 9 NYG leads
NONYG
Offense
23.6Points / game21.8
361.2Total yards / game331.8
5.41Yards / play5.09
279.4Passing yards / game222.8
6.41Yards / pass attempt6.22
66.8%Completion %61.4%
81.8Rushing yards / game109.0
3.53Yards / carry3.71
2.00Turnovers / game1.40
2.60Sacks allowed / game2.60
Defense
30.2Points allowed / game21.2
393.0Yards allowed / game347.4
6.22Yards / play allowed5.95
244.2Passing yards allowed / game219.8
7.49Yards / pass attempt allowed6.50
148.8Rushing yards allowed / game127.6
4.86Yards / carry allowed5.19
1.00Takeaways / game1.60
2.00Sacks / game1.60
Advanced
−0.096Offense EPA / play−0.084
−0.031Pass offense EPA / play−0.022
−0.217Rush offense EPA / play−0.200
40.9%Offense success rate38.6%
+0.051Defense EPA / play allowed+0.051
+0.135Pass defense EPA allowed+0.089
−0.094Rush defense EPA allowed−0.024
46.2%Defense success rate allowed45.9%
2.4Explosive plays / game2.9
+0.007QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.010
7Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
NYG −2.5 · O/U 45.5
Sportsbook win chance
NYG 50.4%
Market-adjusted win chance
NYG 49.3%
Model-only win chance
NYG 54.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadNYG +1.5 (−125)-3.4%pass
TotalUnder 46.5 (−115)-4.5%pass
MoneylineNO −108-3.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · CBS
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
New York Jets2-3
Projected17.217.1
New England Patriots3-2
Projected26.225.9
NYJ 23%win chance77% NE
NYJ 24%win chance76% NE
MoneylineNE −345 · NYJ +275
Market lineNE −7.5
Market total43.5
Projected winnerNE 77% NE 76%
Model lineNE −7.4NE −7.3
Model total43.042.6
Model pickNYJ +7.5 50% NYJ +7.5 0.2 pts
Total pickUnder 43.5 52% Under 43.5 0.9 pts
Team statsStat edges: NYJ 6 · NE 20 · even 4 NE leads
NYJNE
Offense
18.6Points / game22.0
337.6Total yards / game391.6
5.74Yards / play6.14
243.6Passing yards / game264.4
7.47Yards / pass attempt7.87
69.4%Completion %65.6%
94.0Rushing yards / game127.2
3.59Yards / carry4.21
0.60Turnovers / game2.20
3.20Sacks allowed / game2.20
Defense
19.2Points allowed / game18.8
333.8Yards allowed / game330.6
5.26Yards / play allowed5.78
215.8Passing yards allowed / game239.8
6.10Yards / pass attempt allowed6.93
118.0Rushing yards allowed / game90.8
4.21Yards / carry allowed4.02
1.20Takeaways / game1.20
3.40Sacks / game2.20
Advanced
−0.169Offense EPA / play+0.113
−0.189Pass offense EPA / play+0.250
−0.203Rush offense EPA / play−0.098
38.3%Offense success rate47.9%
+0.098Defense EPA / play allowed−0.083
+0.251Pass defense EPA allowed−0.057
−0.116Rush defense EPA allowed−0.134
47.3%Defense success rate allowed40.2%
2.0Explosive plays / game3.9
−0.045QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.077
7Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
NE −9.5 · O/U 42.5
Sportsbook win chance
NE 74.4%
Market-adjusted win chance
NE 76.7%
Model-only win chance
NE 76.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadNYJ +7.5 (−112)-4.4%pass
TotalUnder 43.5 (−118)-4.4%pass
MoneylineNE −345-2.5%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · CBS
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Pittsburgh Steelers3-2
Projected19.921.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-4
Projected18.721.9
PIT 56%win chance44% TB
PIT 50%win chance50% TB
MoneylinePIT −135 · TB +114
Market linePIT −1.5
Market total38.5
Projected winnerPIT 56% TB 50%
Model linePIT −1.7TB −0.8
Model total38.342.9
Model pickPIT −1.5 51% TB +1.5 2.3 pts
Total pickUnder 38.5 50% Over 38.5 4.4 pts
Team statsStat edges: PIT 14 · TB 11 · even 5 PIT leads
PITTB
Offense
22.2Points / game20.0
371.4Total yards / game340.4
6.03Yards / play5.60
270.2Passing yards / game207.4
6.75Yards / pass attempt6.17
59.1%Completion %65.6%
101.2Rushing yards / game133.0
4.69Yards / carry4.89
1.20Turnovers / game1.80
2.80Sacks allowed / game3.40
Defense
21.8Points allowed / game22.4
349.8Yards allowed / game315.4
5.89Yards / play allowed5.57
246.4Passing yards allowed / game242.6
7.29Yards / pass attempt allowed7.05
103.4Rushing yards allowed / game72.8
4.04Yards / carry allowed3.28
1.60Takeaways / game1.40
2.20Sacks / game1.20
Advanced
+0.010Offense EPA / play−0.051
+0.007Pass offense EPA / play−0.031
+0.026Rush offense EPA / play−0.064
43.1%Offense success rate41.7%
+0.030Defense EPA / play allowed+0.014
+0.080Pass defense EPA allowed+0.098
−0.092Rush defense EPA allowed−0.138
44.4%Defense success rate allowed43.9%
3.4Explosive plays / game3.2
+0.002QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.033
7Days of rest10

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
TB −1.5 · O/U 45.5
Sportsbook win chance
TB 44.9%
Market-adjusted win chance
TB 44.4%
Model-only win chance
TB 50.1%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadPIT −1.5 (−115)-5.4%pass
TotalUnder 38.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylinePIT −135-3.6%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · Fox
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
Tennessee Titans0-5
Projected18.317.3
Indianapolis Colts2-3
Projected25.725.1
TEN 28%win chance72% IND
TEN 27%win chance73% IND
MoneylineIND −298 · TEN +240
Market lineIND −6.5
Market total43.5
Projected winnerIND 72% IND 73%
Model lineIND −6.4IND −6.7
Model total43.541.9
Model pickTEN +6.5 50% IND −6.5 0.2 pts
Total pickUnder 43.5 50% Under 43.5 1.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: TEN 10 · IND 14 · even 6 IND leads
TENIND
Offense
11.6Points / game24.8
277.2Total yards / game316.2
5.08Yards / play4.91
194.6Passing yards / game215.4
5.90Yards / pass attempt5.82
63.2%Completion %61.4%
82.6Rushing yards / game100.8
3.82Yards / carry3.68
1.00Turnovers / game1.60
2.00Sacks allowed / game1.80
Defense
21.8Points allowed / game27.6
353.4Yards allowed / game412.2
5.57Yards / play allowed6.69
239.4Passing yards allowed / game282.0
7.67Yards / pass attempt allowed7.97
114.0Rushing yards allowed / game130.2
3.54Yards / carry allowed4.97
0.40Takeaways / game0.40
2.00Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
−0.175Offense EPA / play+0.028
−0.180Pass offense EPA / play−0.002
−0.157Rush offense EPA / play+0.067
37.5%Offense success rate43.4%
+0.163Defense EPA / play allowed+0.064
+0.262Pass defense EPA allowed+0.127
−0.016Rush defense EPA allowed−0.032
47.7%Defense success rate allowed44.2%
2.4Explosive plays / game3.0
−0.126QB rating (EPA / dropback)−0.016
7Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
IND −3.5 · O/U 48.5
Sportsbook win chance
IND 71.8%
Market-adjusted win chance
IND 72.5%
Model-only win chance
IND 73.5%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadTEN +6.5 (−112)-4.7%pass
TotalUnder 43.5 (−110)-4.5%pass
MoneylineIND −298-3.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

4:05 PM ET · Fox
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
Arizona Cardinals1-4
Projected19.919.7
Los Angeles Rams2-3
Projected32.731.4
ARI 15%win chance85% LA
ARI 17%win chance83% LA
MoneylineLA −800 · ARI +550
Market lineLA −12.5
Market total51.5
Projected winnerLA 85% LA 83%
Model lineLA −12.6LA −10.8
Model total51.950.7
Model pickLA −12.5 50% ARI +12.5 1.7 pts
Total pickOver 51.5 51% Under 51.5 0.8 pts
Team statsStat edges: ARI 6 · LA 23 · even 1 LA leads
ARILA
Offense
21.6Points / game23.8
328.8Total yards / game443.2
4.92Yards / play6.26
237.2Passing yards / game326.4
5.59Yards / pass attempt7.22
66.5%Completion %64.4%
91.6Rushing yards / game116.8
3.75Yards / carry4.56
1.00Turnovers / game1.60
2.40Sacks allowed / game1.40
Defense
32.4Points allowed / game24.0
394.6Yards allowed / game301.6
6.71Yards / play allowed5.13
268.0Passing yards allowed / game173.2
8.93Yards / pass attempt allowed5.62
126.6Rushing yards allowed / game128.4
4.40Yards / carry allowed4.59
1.40Takeaways / game1.00
2.20Sacks / game1.60
Advanced
−0.084Offense EPA / play+0.141
−0.044Pass offense EPA / play+0.225
−0.194Rush offense EPA / play−0.045
41.3%Offense success rate48.7%
+0.094Defense EPA / play allowed−0.029
+0.247Pass defense EPA allowed+0.069
−0.120Rush defense EPA allowed−0.175
45.1%Defense success rate allowed42.4%
2.4Explosive plays / game5.0
−0.024QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.145
7Days of rest6

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
LA −13.5 · O/U 46.5
Sportsbook win chance
LA 85.2%
Market-adjusted win chance
LA 85.5%
Model-only win chance
LA 83.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadLA −12.5 (−112)-5.2%pass
TotalOver 51.5 (−115)-4.5%pass
MoneylineLA −800-4.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

4:25 PM ET · CBS
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
Buffalo Bills4-1
Projected30.029.7
Las Vegas Raiders3-2
Projected23.822.5
BUF 71%win chance29% LV
BUF 74%win chance26% LV
MoneylineBUF −245 · LV +200
Market lineBUF −5.5
Market total53.5
Projected winnerBUF 71% BUF 74%
Model lineBUF −5.5BUF −6.3
Model total53.651.5
Model pickLV +5.5 50% BUF −5.5 0.8 pts
Total pickOver 53.5 50% Under 53.5 2.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: BUF 18 · LV 9 · even 3 BUF leads
BUFLV
Offense
32.8Points / game26.4
419.4Total yards / game355.2
7.11Yards / play5.46
261.4Passing yards / game273.2
8.83Yards / pass attempt7.27
65.9%Completion %65.6%
158.0Rushing yards / game82.0
5.37Yards / carry2.99
1.80Turnovers / game1.00
2.00Sacks allowed / game1.60
Defense
28.2Points allowed / game25.8
419.4Yards allowed / game410.6
5.99Yards / play allowed6.67
311.2Passing yards allowed / game270.0
7.34Yards / pass attempt allowed7.80
108.2Rushing yards allowed / game140.6
3.92Yards / carry allowed5.21
1.00Takeaways / game2.00
2.20Sacks / game2.60
Advanced
+0.204Offense EPA / play−0.090
+0.289Pass offense EPA / play+0.017
+0.060Rush offense EPA / play−0.261
50.4%Offense success rate39.8%
+0.031Defense EPA / play allowed+0.058
+0.039Pass defense EPA allowed+0.163
−0.016Rush defense EPA allowed−0.101
45.1%Defense success rate allowed46.0%
4.9Explosive plays / game2.7
+0.120QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.082
6Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
BUF −6.5 · O/U 47.5
Sportsbook win chance
LV 31.9%
Market-adjusted win chance
LV 28.8%
Model-only win chance
LV 25.8%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadLV +5.5 (−112)-5.1%pass
TotalOver 53.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylineBUF −245-1.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

4:25 PM ET · CBS
Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO
Los Angeles Chargers0-5
Projected16.817.9
Kansas City Chiefs4-0
Projected25.426.0
LAC 24%win chance76% KC
LAC 26%win chance74% KC
MoneylineKC −395 · LAC +310
Market lineKC −7.0
Market total41.5
Projected winnerKC 76% KC 74%
Model lineKC −7.2KC −6.9
Model total41.543.4
Model pickKC −7.0 51% LAC +7.0 0.1 pts
Total pickUnder 41.5 50% Over 41.5 1.9 pts
Team statsStat edges: LAC 5 · KC 25 · even 0 KC leads
LACKC
Offense
16.8Points / game29.5
338.4Total yards / game431.0
5.49Yards / play6.84
210.2Passing yards / game268.8
6.53Yards / pass attempt8.02
59.0%Completion %64.1%
128.2Rushing yards / game162.2
4.36Yards / carry5.50
2.40Turnovers / game0.50
3.40Sacks allowed / game1.50
Defense
25.8Points allowed / game19.2
335.6Yards allowed / game325.8
5.41Yards / play allowed5.11
217.0Passing yards allowed / game233.0
7.14Yards / pass attempt allowed6.17
118.6Rushing yards allowed / game92.8
3.75Yards / carry allowed3.57
1.60Takeaways / game1.75
2.20Sacks / game0.75
Advanced
−0.144Offense EPA / play+0.018
−0.099Pass offense EPA / play+0.022
−0.199Rush offense EPA / play−0.009
40.2%Offense success rate43.6%
−0.078Defense EPA / play allowed−0.004
−0.059Pass defense EPA allowed+0.093
−0.129Rush defense EPA allowed−0.161
41.6%Defense success rate allowed43.2%
2.7Explosive plays / game3.7
−0.023QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.093
7Days of rest14

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
KC −2.5 · O/U 46.5
Sportsbook win chance
KC 76.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
KC 75.8%
Model-only win chance
KC 74.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadKC −7.0 (−115)-4.6%pass
TotalUnder 41.5 (−110)-4.5%pass
MoneylineLAC +310-2.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

8:20 PM ET · NBC
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
Dallas Cowboys2-3
Projected26.624.8
Green Bay Packers3-2
Projected27.226.1
DAL 50%win chance50% GB
DAL 47%win chance53% GB
MoneylineGB −115 · DAL −105
Market lineGB −1.5
Market total53.5
Projected winnerGB 50% GB 53%
Model lineGB −0.9GB −1.9
Model total53.650.5
Model pickDAL +1.5 51% GB −1.5 0.4 pts
Total pickOver 53.5 50% Under 53.5 3.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: DAL 10 · GB 17 · even 3 GB leads
DALGB
Offense
27.6Points / game20.8
364.4Total yards / game352.6
5.97Yards / play6.00
282.8Passing yards / game292.2
7.14Yards / pass attempt7.49
67.2%Completion %60.5%
81.6Rushing yards / game60.4
3.81Yards / carry3.05
0.80Turnovers / game1.20
1.20Sacks allowed / game2.00
Defense
27.2Points allowed / game22.4
405.0Yards allowed / game345.4
6.53Yards / play allowed5.27
236.6Passing yards allowed / game217.8
8.16Yards / pass attempt allowed6.37
168.4Rushing yards allowed / game127.6
5.10Yards / carry allowed4.06
0.40Takeaways / game1.80
1.00Sacks / game2.80
Advanced
+0.098Offense EPA / play+0.077
+0.165Pass offense EPA / play+0.233
−0.038Rush offense EPA / play−0.233
48.0%Offense success rate45.2%
+0.182Defense EPA / play allowed+0.047
+0.321Pass defense EPA allowed+0.119
−0.020Rush defense EPA allowed−0.088
48.6%Defense success rate allowed45.8%
3.4Explosive plays / game3.7
+0.131QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.162
10Days of rest7

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
GB −3.0 · O/U 51.5
Sportsbook win chance
GB 51.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
GB 50.4%
Model-only win chance
GB 53.2%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadDAL +1.5 (−118)-4.9%pass
TotalOver 53.5 (−112)-4.5%pass
MoneylineDAL −105-3.8%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

Monday October 191 game

8:15 PM ET · ESPN / ABC
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
Washington Commanders1-3-1
Projected21.820.9
San Francisco 49ers5-0
Projected30.929.4
WAS 23%win chance77% SF
WAS 25%win chance75% SF
MoneylineSF −455 · WAS +350
Market lineSF −7.5
Market total52.5
Projected winnerSF 77% SF 75%
Model lineSF −7.5SF −7.1
Model total52.149.9
Model pickWAS +7.5 50% WAS +7.5 0.4 pts
Total pickUnder 52.5 51% Under 52.5 2.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: WAS 2 · SF 22 · even 6 SF leads
WASSF
Offense
23.0Points / game30.8
345.8Total yards / game370.6
5.40Yards / play6.52
206.2Passing yards / game242.0
5.99Yards / pass attempt8.34
58.6%Completion %69.0%
139.6Rushing yards / game128.6
4.72Yards / carry4.63
0.40Turnovers / game0.60
2.00Sacks allowed / game0.60
Defense
29.8Points allowed / game18.6
378.0Yards allowed / game319.6
5.89Yards / play allowed5.03
282.6Passing yards allowed / game222.0
7.10Yards / pass attempt allowed6.00
95.4Rushing yards allowed / game97.6
3.91Yards / carry allowed3.67
1.40Takeaways / game1.40
1.80Sacks / game2.20
Advanced
+0.015Offense EPA / play+0.183
+0.090Pass offense EPA / play+0.347
−0.098Rush offense EPA / play−0.058
41.8%Offense success rate51.1%
+0.077Defense EPA / play allowed+0.016
+0.138Pass defense EPA allowed+0.083
−0.096Rush defense EPA allowed−0.091
47.8%Defense success rate allowed45.0%
3.2Explosive plays / game3.3
+0.075QB rating (EPA / dropback)+0.197
8Days of rest8

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
SF −5.5 · O/U 50.5
Sportsbook win chance
SF 78.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
SF 77.0%
Model-only win chance
SF 75.5%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadWAS +7.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
TotalUnder 52.5 (−115)-4.5%pass
MoneylineWAS +350-0.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

CollegeWeek 8

2026 season · Oct 20 – Oct 24 · 56 games —until next kickoff Updated Sun Oct 18, 11:42 AM ET · trained through 2026 week 7
Live record
Winners126–5370.4%
Spread84–89–648.6%
Totals83–9646.4%
Value bets (+0.9u)1–0100.0%

179 games graded, all picks logged before kickoff · average closing line value -0.11 pts · backtest spread record 4199–4061

Live record
Winners125–5469.8%
Spread84–89–648.6%
Totals83–9646.4%

Pure model, no sportsbook input: leans, not bets. 179 games graded, all picks logged before kickoff · backtest spread record 4196–4064

Surest winnerMiami94% to winPittsburgh @ Miami
Biggest spread leanSacramento State +9.5model 0.6 pts off the lineSacramento State @ Ball State
Biggest total leanUnder 46.5model 1.1 pts off the lineNorth Dakota State @ New Mexico
Surest winnerMiami91% to winPittsburgh @ Miami
Biggest spread leanTCU −7.0model 6.6 pts off the lineWest Virginia @ TCU
Biggest total leanUnder 57.5model 5.4 pts off the lineJames Madison @ App State

Tuesday October 203 games

7:00 PM ET · CBSSN
Pitbull Stadium
Middle Tennessee3-3
Projected17.016.1
Florida International3-3
Projected28.929.9
MTSU 20%win chance80% FIU
MTSU 17%win chance83% FIU
MoneylineFIU −440 · MTSU +340
Market lineFIU −10.5
Market total45.5
Projected winnerFIU 80% FIU 83%
Model lineFIU −10.7FIU −13.6
Model total45.545.7
Model pickFlorida International −10.5 50% Florida International −10.5 3.1 pts
Total pickOver 45.5 50% Over 45.5 0.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: MTSU 7 · FIU 16 · even 6 FIU leads
MTSUFIU
Offense
22.8Points / game19.7
321.5Total yards / game382.7
5.64Yards / play5.36
200.7Passing yards / game262.7
6.37Yards / pass attempt7.36
58.2%Completion %58.4%
120.8Rushing yards / game120.0
4.74Yards / carry3.36
26.2%Third-down conversion %46.4%
0.67Turnovers / game1.50
1.17Sacks allowed / game1.17
Defense
28.3Points allowed / game14.7
412.8Yards allowed / game266.7
6.43Yards / play allowed4.51
216.5Passing yards allowed / game166.2
8.17Yards / pass attempt allowed5.97
196.3Rushing yards allowed / game100.5
5.21Yards / carry allowed3.21
39.7%Third-down % allowed29.3%
1.33Takeaways / game1.33
1.17Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.097Offense PPA / play+0.030
+0.170Defense PPA / play allowed−0.032
38.4%Offense success rate39.6%
46.2%Defense success rate allowed35.7%
1.23Offense explosiveness1.13
1.17Explosiveness allowed1.23
56.7Plays / game (pace)72.7
572Roster talent (247 composite)608
32.5%Returning production31.6%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
FIU −10.0 · O/U 45.5
Sportsbook win chance
FIU 78.2%
Market-adjusted win chance
FIU 79.6%
Model-only win chance
FIU 82.9%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadFlorida International −10.5 (−110)-4.0%pass
TotalOver 45.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
MoneylineFlorida International −440-3.2%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:00 PM ET · ESPNU
Delaware Stadium
Missouri State2-4
Projected25.023.3
Delaware2-4
Projected28.330.3
MOST 40%win chance60% DEL
MOST 31%win chance69% DEL
MoneylineDEL −142 · MOST +120
Market lineDEL −3.0
Market total52.5
Projected winnerDEL 60% DEL 69%
Model lineDEL −3.1DEL −6.4
Model total52.653.2
Model pickDelaware −3.0 51% Delaware −3.0 3.4 pts
Total pickOver 52.5 50% Over 52.5 0.7 pts
Team statsStat edges: MOST 8 · DEL 16 · even 5 DEL leads
MOSTDEL
Offense
22.2Points / game22.8
359.5Total yards / game365.0
5.60Yards / play5.64
224.7Passing yards / game271.0
7.37Yards / pass attempt7.86
65.6%Completion %53.1%
134.8Rushing yards / game94.0
4.00Yards / carry3.12
35.1%Third-down conversion %31.6%
1.17Turnovers / game1.33
2.00Sacks allowed / game3.00
Defense
30.5Points allowed / game26.8
430.8Yards allowed / game393.2
6.05Yards / play allowed5.68
254.3Passing yards allowed / game261.7
7.87Yards / pass attempt allowed7.70
176.5Rushing yards allowed / game131.5
4.55Yards / carry allowed3.74
45.0%Third-down % allowed36.1%
1.00Takeaways / game1.33
1.17Sacks / game3.00
Advanced
+0.020Offense PPA / play+0.106
+0.181Defense PPA / play allowed+0.141
37.9%Offense success rate40.2%
46.0%Defense success rate allowed41.8%
1.15Offense explosiveness1.24
1.12Explosiveness allowed1.31
56.0Plays / game (pace)54.3
550Roster talent (247 composite)483
31.3%Returning production84.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
DEL −3.0 · O/U 52.5
Sportsbook win chance
DEL 56.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
DEL 59.8%
Model-only win chance
DEL 69.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadDelaware −3.0 (−110)-3.2%pass
TotalOver 52.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
MoneylineDelaware −142-1.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · ESPN2
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
South Alabama4-2
Projected33.832.5
Marshall3-3
Projected29.631.2
USA 60%win chance40% MRSH
USA 52%win chance48% MRSH
MoneylineUSA −162 · MRSH +136
Market lineUSA −3.5
Market total62.5
Projected winnerUSA 60% USA 52%
Model lineUSA −3.4USA −1.8
Model total62.662.9
Model pickMarshall +3.5 50% Marshall +3.5 1.7 pts
Total pickOver 62.5 50% Over 62.5 0.4 pts
Team statsStat edges: USA 16 · MRSH 8 · even 5 USA leads
USAMRSH
Offense
38.8Points / game22.0
437.8Total yards / game406.5
6.15Yards / play5.81
217.5Passing yards / game247.8
8.64Yards / pass attempt7.25
63.6%Completion %62.4%
220.3Rushing yards / game158.7
4.79Yards / carry4.43
44.2%Third-down conversion %40.5%
0.50Turnovers / game2.33
1.00Sacks allowed / game1.83
Defense
34.5Points allowed / game33.7
427.8Yards allowed / game447.3
7.25Yards / play allowed6.78
263.7Passing yards allowed / game253.5
8.64Yards / pass attempt allowed8.18
164.2Rushing yards allowed / game193.8
5.76Yards / carry allowed5.54
42.6%Third-down % allowed43.4%
1.83Takeaways / game0.83
1.67Sacks / game0.83
Advanced
+0.238Offense PPA / play+0.139
+0.239Defense PPA / play allowed+0.342
43.3%Offense success rate43.5%
49.4%Defense success rate allowed45.6%
1.36Offense explosiveness1.23
1.45Explosiveness allowed1.40
67.8Plays / game (pace)68.0
573Roster talent (247 composite)595
78.6%Returning production98.8%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
USA −3.0 · O/U 62.5
Sportsbook win chance
MRSH 40.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
MRSH 39.7%
Model-only win chance
MRSH 47.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMarshall +3.5 (−110)-3.7%pass
TotalOver 62.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
MoneylineSouth Alabama −162-3.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

Wednesday October 211 game

8:00 PM ET · ESPN2
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
New Mexico State2-4
Projected24.022.1
Sam Houston1-5
Projected22.524.5
NMSU 53%win chance47% SHSU
NMSU 43%win chance57% SHSU
MoneylineNMSU −130 · SHSU +110
Market lineNMSU −2.5
Market total46.5
Projected winnerNMSU 53% SHSU 57%
Model lineNMSU −2.2SHSU −2.7
Model total46.546.7
Model pickSam Houston +2.5 51% Sam Houston +2.5 5.2 pts
Total pickOver 46.5 50% Over 46.5 0.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: NMSU 11 · SHSU 9 · even 9 NMSU leads
NMSUSHSU
Offense
23.7Points / game19.5
368.5Total yards / game342.0
5.76Yards / play5.23
225.8Passing yards / game247.0
6.95Yards / pass attempt7.02
55.4%Completion %62.6%
142.7Rushing yards / game95.0
4.53Yards / carry3.15
41.0%Third-down conversion %37.2%
1.83Turnovers / game1.00
2.00Sacks allowed / game2.67
Defense
25.7Points allowed / game24.5
346.7Yards allowed / game338.2
5.20Yards / play allowed5.19
221.7Passing yards allowed / game137.8
7.15Yards / pass attempt allowed5.30
125.0Rushing yards allowed / game200.3
3.50Yards / carry allowed5.11
41.4%Third-down % allowed32.5%
1.00Takeaways / game1.17
2.50Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
−0.021Offense PPA / play−0.009
+0.081Defense PPA / play allowed+0.108
38.7%Offense success rate39.1%
40.7%Defense success rate allowed41.4%
1.39Offense explosiveness1.23
1.20Explosiveness allowed1.20
59.8Plays / game (pace)55.0
460Roster talent (247 composite)554
24.4%Returning production57.7%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
NMSU −2.5 · O/U 47.5
Sportsbook win chance
SHSU 45.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
SHSU 46.8%
Model-only win chance
SHSU 57.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadSam Houston +2.5 (−110)-3.4%pass
TotalOver 46.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
MoneylineSam Houston +110-2.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

Thursday October 223 games

7:00 PM ET · ESPNU
Kidd Brewer Stadium
James Madison7-0
Projected34.632.6
App State4-2
Projected22.720.2
JMU 78%win chance22% APP
JMU 79%win chance21% APP
MoneylineJMU −425 · APP +330
Market lineJMU −10.5
Market total57.5
Projected winnerJMU 78% JMU 79%
Model lineJMU −10.5JMU −11.3
Model total56.552.1
Model pickJames Madison −10.5 50% James Madison −10.5 0.8 pts
Total pickUnder 57.5 52% Under 57.5 5.4 pts
Team statsStat edges: JMU 15 · APP 5 · even 9 JMU leads
JMUAPP
Offense
42.9Points / game29.5
461.0Total yards / game421.8
6.78Yards / play6.11
237.4Passing yards / game267.7
8.23Yards / pass attempt8.19
64.9%Completion %67.3%
223.6Rushing yards / game154.2
5.71Yards / carry4.24
40.4%Third-down conversion %35.9%
0.71Turnovers / game1.17
1.14Sacks allowed / game1.33
Defense
16.0Points allowed / game21.8
350.7Yards allowed / game352.3
5.02Yards / play allowed5.12
236.4Passing yards allowed / game214.5
6.70Yards / pass attempt allowed6.85
114.3Rushing yards allowed / game137.8
3.31Yards / carry allowed3.68
37.6%Third-down % allowed38.4%
1.71Takeaways / game1.83
2.57Sacks / game1.50
Advanced
+0.267Offense PPA / play+0.109
−0.039Defense PPA / play allowed+0.016
46.2%Offense success rate41.6%
36.7%Defense success rate allowed39.4%
1.25Offense explosiveness1.24
1.31Explosiveness allowed1.10
62.9Plays / game (pace)65.5
588Roster talent (247 composite)622
8.0%Returning production37.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
JMU −10.5 · O/U 56.5
Sportsbook win chance
APP 22.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
APP 21.9%
Model-only win chance
APP 20.7%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadJames Madison −10.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
TotalUnder 57.5 (−110)-0.6%pass
MoneylineJames Madison −425-3.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:00 PM ET · CBSSN
Fifth Third Stadium
Liberty5-1
Projected29.628.8
Kennesaw State1-5
Projected18.019.7
LIB 78%win chance22% KENN
LIB 72%win chance28% KENN
MoneylineLIB −425 · KENN +330
Market lineLIB −10.5
Market total47.5
Projected winnerLIB 78% LIB 72%
Model lineLIB −10.4LIB −7.4
Model total47.648.3
Model pickKennesaw State +10.5 50% Kennesaw State +10.5 3.1 pts
Total pickOver 47.5 50% Over 47.5 0.8 pts
Team statsStat edges: LIB 22 · KENN 4 · even 3 LIB leads
LIBKENN
Offense
31.2Points / game22.3
415.8Total yards / game367.3
6.51Yards / play5.64
192.8Passing yards / game223.7
8.97Yards / pass attempt6.78
58.9%Completion %69.2%
223.0Rushing yards / game143.7
5.27Yards / carry4.47
45.2%Third-down conversion %40.8%
0.83Turnovers / game1.00
2.00Sacks allowed / game1.00
Defense
15.3Points allowed / game23.5
291.7Yards allowed / game376.3
4.85Yards / play allowed5.69
167.5Passing yards allowed / game233.3
5.68Yards / pass attempt allowed7.37
124.2Rushing yards allowed / game143.0
4.05Yards / carry allowed4.14
28.8%Third-down % allowed38.7%
1.33Takeaways / game1.33
2.00Sacks / game1.00
Advanced
+0.213Offense PPA / play+0.111
−0.027Defense PPA / play allowed+0.101
49.9%Offense success rate43.3%
33.8%Defense success rate allowed41.6%
1.14Offense explosiveness1.12
1.34Explosiveness allowed1.11
60.0Plays / game (pace)56.3
633Roster talent (247 composite)503
38.3%Returning production6.1%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
LIB −8.5 · O/U 47.5
Sportsbook win chance
KENN 22.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
KENN 22.2%
Model-only win chance
KENN 27.7%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadKennesaw State +10.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalOver 47.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
MoneylineLiberty −425-4.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · ESPN2
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
East Carolina3-3
Projected21.519.7
Memphis5-2
Projected32.232.8
ECU 23%win chance77% MEM
ECU 18%win chance82% MEM
MoneylineMEM −395 · ECU +310
Market lineMEM −9.5
Market total53.5
Projected winnerMEM 77% MEM 82%
Model lineMEM −9.6MEM −12.7
Model total53.251.9
Model pickMemphis −9.5 50% Memphis −9.5 3.2 pts
Total pickUnder 53.5 51% Under 53.5 1.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: ECU 12 · MEM 14 · even 3 MEM leads
ECUMEM
Offense
23.5Points / game35.4
339.5Total yards / game512.6
5.18Yards / play7.37
183.7Passing yards / game274.9
6.26Yards / pass attempt10.07
61.4%Completion %67.0%
155.8Rushing yards / game237.7
4.31Yards / carry5.62
31.3%Third-down conversion %45.1%
1.67Turnovers / game1.57
2.17Sacks allowed / game2.14
Defense
23.8Points allowed / game22.3
326.5Yards allowed / game372.4
4.65Yards / play allowed5.91
187.5Passing yards allowed / game199.6
7.08Yards / pass attempt allowed7.55
139.0Rushing yards allowed / game172.9
3.18Yards / carry allowed4.73
33.7%Third-down % allowed31.2%
1.33Takeaways / game1.86
2.83Sacks / game2.29
Advanced
+0.082Offense PPA / play+0.200
−0.060Defense PPA / play allowed+0.063
39.9%Offense success rate48.8%
31.7%Defense success rate allowed36.9%
1.34Offense explosiveness1.31
1.42Explosiveness allowed1.47
58.8Plays / game (pace)64.7
624Roster talent (247 composite)670
13.6%Returning production5.6%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
MEM −9.5 · O/U 53.5
Sportsbook win chance
MEM 76.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
MEM 77.1%
Model-only win chance
MEM 81.8%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMemphis −9.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalUnder 53.5 (−110)-3.5%pass
MoneylineMemphis −395-3.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

Friday October 235 games

7:00 PM ET · ESPN
Scott Stadium
Duke4-2
Projected22.922.4
Virginia4-3
Projected24.826.2
DUKE 44%win chance56% UVA
DUKE 39%win chance61% UVA
MoneylineUVA −130 · DUKE +110
Market lineUVA −2.5
Market total47.5
Projected winnerUVA 56% UVA 61%
Model lineUVA −2.5UVA −3.3
Model total47.648.4
Model pickVirginia −2.5 50% Virginia −2.5 0.8 pts
Total pickOver 47.5 50% Over 47.5 0.9 pts
Team statsStat edges: DUKE 14 · UVA 7 · even 8 DUKE leads
DUKEUVA
Offense
31.7Points / game30.0
442.7Total yards / game362.9
6.26Yards / play5.45
233.2Passing yards / game206.0
7.32Yards / pass attempt7.75
60.7%Completion %64.0%
209.5Rushing yards / game156.9
5.39Yards / carry3.92
46.5%Third-down conversion %33.0%
0.50Turnovers / game0.43
0.33Sacks allowed / game3.14
Defense
16.0Points allowed / game19.7
292.7Yards allowed / game326.6
4.97Yards / play allowed5.00
200.2Passing yards allowed / game173.9
6.75Yards / pass attempt allowed6.24
92.5Rushing yards allowed / game152.7
3.17Yards / carry allowed4.08
29.2%Third-down % allowed34.3%
0.83Takeaways / game1.14
2.17Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
+0.271Offense PPA / play+0.243
+0.063Defense PPA / play allowed+0.045
44.6%Offense success rate48.3%
38.9%Defense success rate allowed39.3%
1.30Offense explosiveness1.07
1.19Explosiveness allowed1.07
65.3Plays / game (pace)55.4
668Roster talent (247 composite)700
17.1%Returning production9.5%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
UVA −6.5 · O/U 53.5
Sportsbook win chance
UVA 54.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
UVA 56.1%
Model-only win chance
UVA 61.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadVirginia −2.5 (−110)-4.0%pass
TotalOver 47.5 (−110)-3.7%pass
MoneylineVirginia −130-2.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:00 PM ET · CBSSN
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Massachusetts4-3
Projected16.017.6
UConn3-3
Projected32.033.4
MASS 13%win chance87% CONN
MASS 14%win chance86% CONN
MoneylineCONN −800 · MASS +550
Market lineCONN −16.5
Market total47.5
Projected winnerCONN 87% CONN 86%
Model lineCONN −16.5CONN −16.0
Model total47.950.8
Model pickMassachusetts +16.5 50% Massachusetts +16.5 0.5 pts
Total pickOver 47.5 51% Over 47.5 3.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: MASS 14 · CONN 11 · even 4 MASS leads
MASSCONN
Offense
28.0Points / game35.7
339.1Total yards / game451.8
5.86Yards / play6.86
179.0Passing yards / game256.5
7.64Yards / pass attempt8.79
67.7%Completion %61.1%
160.1Rushing yards / game195.3
4.65Yards / carry5.33
35.4%Third-down conversion %41.9%
0.86Turnovers / game1.17
1.43Sacks allowed / game2.83
Defense
19.1Points allowed / game25.2
308.3Yards allowed / game407.5
4.58Yards / play allowed5.63
183.1Passing yards allowed / game290.5
5.75Yards / pass attempt allowed7.58
125.1Rushing yards allowed / game117.0
3.53Yards / carry allowed3.44
36.6%Third-down % allowed43.3%
1.86Takeaways / game1.17
2.14Sacks / game1.83
Advanced
+0.203Offense PPA / play+0.213
−0.068Defense PPA / play allowed+0.039
44.0%Offense success rate44.1%
38.2%Defense success rate allowed40.2%
1.27Offense explosiveness1.40
1.08Explosiveness allowed1.17
54.1Plays / game (pace)59.3
526Roster talent (247 composite)653
-56.7%Returning production2.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
CONN −15.5 · O/U 49.5
Sportsbook win chance
CONN 85.2%
Market-adjusted win chance
CONN 86.6%
Model-only win chance
CONN 86.2%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMassachusetts +16.5 (−110)-4.5%pass
TotalOver 47.5 (−110)-2.0%pass
MoneylineUConn −800-3.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

8:30 PM ET · ESPN2
Chapman Stadium
Army4-2
Projected26.025.4
Tulsa4-3
Projected26.925.8
ARMY 46%win chance54% TLSA
ARMY 48%win chance52% TLSA
MoneylineARMY −115 · TLSA −105
Market lineTLSA −1.5
Market total52.5
Projected winnerTLSA 54% TLSA 52%
Model lineTLSA −1.5TLSA −0.9
Model total52.250.9
Model pickArmy +1.5 50% Army +1.5 0.6 pts
Total pickUnder 52.5 51% Under 52.5 1.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: ARMY 14 · TLSA 13 · even 2 ARMY leads
ARMYTLSA
Offense
34.8Points / game29.0
426.7Total yards / game364.0
6.55Yards / play5.52
69.2Passing yards / game204.4
6.69Yards / pass attempt6.48
58.1%Completion %60.2%
357.5Rushing yards / game159.6
6.52Yards / carry4.63
52.1%Third-down conversion %31.3%
0.33Turnovers / game0.57
0.33Sacks allowed / game1.29
Defense
20.0Points allowed / game22.4
368.0Yards allowed / game408.4
6.38Yards / play allowed5.48
220.0Passing yards allowed / game216.9
7.67Yards / pass attempt allowed7.13
148.0Rushing yards allowed / game191.6
5.10Yards / carry allowed4.34
45.6%Third-down % allowed41.2%
0.67Takeaways / game2.14
1.00Sacks / game2.43
Advanced
+0.361Offense PPA / play+0.154
+0.183Defense PPA / play allowed+0.048
52.8%Offense success rate39.3%
43.7%Defense success rate allowed41.0%
1.11Offense explosiveness1.22
1.36Explosiveness allowed1.15
60.3Plays / game (pace)64.1
304Roster talent (247 composite)623
80.2%Returning production41.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
TLSA −1.5 · O/U 50.5
Sportsbook win chance
TLSA 48.9%
Market-adjusted win chance
TLSA 53.6%
Model-only win chance
TLSA 52.1%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadArmy +1.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
TotalUnder 52.5 (−110)-3.0%pass
MoneylineTulsa −105+0.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

9:00 PM ET · CW / The CW Network
War Memorial Stadium
Air Force5-1
Projected25.624.3
Wyoming4-3
Projected17.620.2
AF 70%win chance30% WYO
AF 60%win chance40% WYO
MoneylineAF −265 · WYO +215
Market lineAF −7.0
Market total43.5
Projected winnerAF 70% AF 60%
Model lineAF −6.9AF −3.4
Model total43.744.6
Model pickWyoming +7.0 51% Wyoming +7.0 3.6 pts
Total pickOver 43.5 51% Over 43.5 1.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: AF 20 · WYO 6 · even 3 AF leads
AFWYO
Offense
30.8Points / game18.3
407.0Total yards / game331.9
5.67Yards / play5.54
64.0Passing yards / game146.4
7.53Yards / pass attempt6.57
49.0%Completion %63.5%
343.0Rushing yards / game185.4
5.42Yards / carry4.94
52.9%Third-down conversion %33.8%
0.67Turnovers / game1.57
0.50Sacks allowed / game2.14
Defense
19.7Points allowed / game20.9
295.7Yards allowed / game366.4
5.46Yards / play allowed5.45
172.3Passing yards allowed / game194.3
7.03Yards / pass attempt allowed6.24
123.3Rushing yards allowed / game172.1
4.16Yards / carry allowed4.76
35.2%Third-down % allowed37.6%
1.17Takeaways / game0.57
1.33Sacks / game2.43
Advanced
+0.243Offense PPA / play+0.085
−0.000Defense PPA / play allowed+0.137
49.2%Offense success rate44.8%
36.9%Defense success rate allowed44.0%
1.07Offense explosiveness1.02
1.24Explosiveness allowed1.11
69.8Plays / game (pace)60.1
272Roster talent (247 composite)528
57.4%Returning production23.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
AF −6.5 · O/U 42.5
Sportsbook win chance
WYO 30.4%
Market-adjusted win chance
WYO 30.4%
Model-only win chance
WYO 40.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadWyoming +7.0 (−110)-3.2%pass
TotalOver 43.5 (−110)-3.5%pass
MoneylineAir Force −265-4.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

10:30 PM ET · ESPN
Stanford Stadium
NC State3-3
Projected32.933.2
Stanford3-4
Projected23.422.2
NCSU 73%win chance27% STAN
NCSU 76%win chance24% STAN
MoneylineNCSU −278 · STAN +225
Market lineNCSU −7.5
Market total55.5
Projected winnerNCSU 73% NCSU 76%
Model lineNCSU −7.6NCSU −9.9
Model total55.454.9
Model pickNC State −7.5 50% NC State −7.5 2.4 pts
Total pickUnder 55.5 50% Under 55.5 0.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: NCSU 26 · STAN 2 · even 1 NCSU leads
NCSUSTAN
Offense
33.0Points / game18.3
426.3Total yards / game345.0
6.00Yards / play5.34
257.8Passing yards / game239.4
7.62Yards / pass attempt6.84
67.5%Completion %60.4%
168.5Rushing yards / game105.6
4.53Yards / carry3.57
51.7%Third-down conversion %33.3%
1.50Turnovers / game0.86
1.83Sacks allowed / game1.71
Defense
27.7Points allowed / game36.6
363.8Yards allowed / game451.6
6.06Yards / play allowed6.52
230.3Passing yards allowed / game255.0
7.94Yards / pass attempt allowed7.63
133.5Rushing yards allowed / game196.6
4.31Yards / carry allowed5.48
34.7%Third-down % allowed47.8%
1.33Takeaways / game1.00
1.33Sacks / game0.57
Advanced
+0.227Offense PPA / play+0.077
+0.143Defense PPA / play allowed+0.349
45.3%Offense success rate36.5%
42.8%Defense success rate allowed47.5%
1.24Offense explosiveness1.12
1.31Explosiveness allowed1.43
59.7Plays / game (pace)50.0
757Roster talent (247 composite)706
59.9%Returning production21.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
NCSU −7.5 · O/U 55.5
Sportsbook win chance
STAN 29.5%
Market-adjusted win chance
STAN 27.0%
Model-only win chance
STAN 23.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadNC State −7.5 (−110)-4.1%pass
TotalUnder 55.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
MoneylineNC State −278-2.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

Saturday October 2444 games

12:00 AM ET
Memorial Stadium
Baylor4-2
Projected27.524.7
Kansas2-4
Projected26.625.8
BAY 51%win chance49% KU
BAY 46%win chance54% KU
MoneylineBAY −120 · KU +100
Market lineBAY −1.5
Market total54.5
Projected winnerBAY 51% KU 54%
Model lineBAY −1.4KU −1.6
Model total53.750.4
Model pickKansas +1.5 50% Kansas +1.5 3.1 pts
Total pickUnder 54.5 52% Under 54.5 4.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: BAY 12 · KU 11 · even 6 BAY leads
BAYKU
Offense
30.0Points / game32.0
436.2Total yards / game449.7
5.33Yards / play6.45
283.8Passing yards / game242.5
6.68Yards / pass attempt8.22
55.3%Completion %54.2%
152.3Rushing yards / game207.2
3.87Yards / carry5.16
40.2%Third-down conversion %38.8%
1.67Turnovers / game1.50
2.00Sacks allowed / game1.00
Defense
14.7Points allowed / game24.0
326.7Yards allowed / game348.7
4.59Yards / play allowed5.43
240.0Passing yards allowed / game174.3
6.32Yards / pass attempt allowed6.79
86.7Rushing yards allowed / game174.3
2.61Yards / carry allowed4.53
36.5%Third-down % allowed32.9%
1.83Takeaways / game1.00
3.67Sacks / game1.67
Advanced
+0.137Offense PPA / play+0.175
−0.082Defense PPA / play allowed−0.049
39.2%Offense success rate43.8%
33.1%Defense success rate allowed33.1%
1.45Offense explosiveness1.43
1.34Explosiveness allowed1.34
72.2Plays / game (pace)60.7
723Roster talent (247 composite)685
60.2%Returning production18.1%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
BAY −1.5 · O/U 54.5
Sportsbook win chance
KU 47.8%
Market-adjusted win chance
KU 48.6%
Model-only win chance
KU 54.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadKansas +1.5 (−110)-4.0%pass
TotalUnder 54.5 (−110)-1.4%pass
MoneylineKansas +100-3.6%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
8BYU6-0
Projected27.525.5
UCF3-3
Projected18.521.3
BYU 72%win chance28% UCF
BYU 60%win chance40% UCF
MoneylineBYU −310 · UCF +250
Market lineBYU −7.5
Market total45.5
Projected winnerBYU 72% BYU 60%
Model lineBYU −7.4BYU −3.4
Model total45.746.8
Model pickUCF +7.5 51% UCF +7.5 4.1 pts
Total pickOver 45.5 50% Over 45.5 1.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: BYU 21 · UCF 4 · even 4 BYU leads
BYUUCF
Offense
33.5Points / game31.7
421.2Total yards / game354.8
6.79Yards / play5.83
214.5Passing yards / game192.7
8.25Yards / pass attempt6.80
65.4%Completion %68.2%
206.7Rushing yards / game162.2
5.74Yards / carry4.99
56.5%Third-down conversion %35.6%
0.83Turnovers / game1.17
0.50Sacks allowed / game1.50
Defense
15.2Points allowed / game21.7
274.7Yards allowed / game355.2
4.42Yards / play allowed5.07
188.5Passing yards allowed / game236.8
5.49Yards / pass attempt allowed7.14
86.2Rushing yards allowed / game118.3
3.10Yards / carry allowed3.21
36.9%Third-down % allowed38.5%
1.33Takeaways / game1.83
1.83Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
+0.334Offense PPA / play+0.077
−0.103Defense PPA / play allowed−0.024
51.4%Offense success rate41.1%
33.3%Defense success rate allowed38.5%
1.21Offense explosiveness1.28
1.23Explosiveness allowed1.20
56.3Plays / game (pace)57.2
689Roster talent (247 composite)672
78.5%Returning production24.8%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
BYU −9.5 · O/U 45.5
Sportsbook win chance
UCF 27.4%
Market-adjusted win chance
UCF 27.9%
Model-only win chance
UCF 39.9%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadUCF +7.5 (−110)-3.1%pass
TotalOver 45.5 (−110)-3.9%pass
MoneylineUCF +250-3.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
Colorado2-4
Projected20.518.9
18Oklahoma State4-2
Projected35.534.5
COLO 15%win chance85% OKST
COLO 14%win chance86% OKST
MoneylineOKST −625 · COLO +455
Market lineOKST −14.5
Market total55.5
Projected winnerOKST 85% OKST 86%
Model lineOKST −14.6OKST −15.6
Model total55.252.7
Model pickOklahoma State −14.5 50% Oklahoma State −14.5 1.1 pts
Total pickUnder 55.5 51% Under 55.5 2.8 pts
Team statsStat edges: COLO 11 · OKST 16 · even 2 OKST leads
COLOOKST
Offense
19.5Points / game37.2
394.2Total yards / game517.7
5.54Yards / play7.24
253.8Passing yards / game329.5
7.18Yards / pass attempt9.46
60.8%Completion %67.9%
140.3Rushing yards / game188.2
3.92Yards / carry5.13
36.1%Third-down conversion %34.3%
2.17Turnovers / game1.83
1.83Sacks allowed / game0.83
Defense
25.7Points allowed / game23.7
357.3Yards allowed / game358.2
5.04Yards / play allowed5.29
226.0Passing yards allowed / game207.0
6.65Yards / pass attempt allowed7.18
131.3Rushing yards allowed / game151.2
3.57Yards / carry allowed3.89
39.3%Third-down % allowed34.9%
1.17Takeaways / game1.17
2.17Sacks / game1.83
Advanced
+0.054Offense PPA / play+0.234
+0.003Defense PPA / play allowed+0.073
40.3%Offense success rate51.5%
37.7%Defense success rate allowed40.2%
1.25Offense explosiveness1.13
1.23Explosiveness allowed1.18
66.0Plays / game (pace)67.7
732Roster talent (247 composite)673
13.7%Returning production0.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
OKST −14.5 · O/U 55.5
Sportsbook win chance
OKST 82.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
OKST 85.0%
Model-only win chance
OKST 85.9%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadOklahoma State −14.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
TotalUnder 55.5 (−110)-2.2%pass
MoneylineOklahoma State −625-2.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
20Houston6-1
Projected25.227.0
11Utah6-0
Projected32.231.3
HOU 31%win chance69% UTAH
HOU 38%win chance62% UTAH
MoneylineUTAH −225 · HOU +185
Market lineUTAH −6.5
Market total56.5
Projected winnerUTAH 69% UTAH 62%
Model lineUTAH −6.3UTAH −3.5
Model total56.757.6
Model pickHouston +6.5 50% Houston +6.5 3.0 pts
Total pickOver 56.5 50% Over 56.5 1.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: HOU 8 · UTAH 10 · even 11 UTAH leads
HOUUTAH
Offense
39.3Points / game40.2
485.1Total yards / game486.7
6.83Yards / play6.81
264.7Passing yards / game266.3
9.00Yards / pass attempt8.41
68.0%Completion %67.4%
220.4Rushing yards / game220.3
5.30Yards / carry5.53
61.4%Third-down conversion %53.2%
0.71Turnovers / game1.00
1.00Sacks allowed / game1.50
Defense
21.0Points allowed / game14.8
347.6Yards allowed / game303.2
5.83Yards / play allowed4.82
265.0Passing yards allowed / game214.5
7.83Yards / pass attempt allowed5.99
82.6Rushing yards allowed / game88.7
3.21Yards / carry allowed3.28
36.0%Third-down % allowed30.9%
1.43Takeaways / game1.50
1.86Sacks / game1.67
Advanced
+0.374Offense PPA / play+0.342
+0.067Defense PPA / play allowed−0.005
54.9%Offense success rate51.3%
40.2%Defense success rate allowed33.5%
1.13Offense explosiveness1.32
1.20Explosiveness allowed1.34
66.3Plays / game (pace)59.3
696Roster talent (247 composite)696
81.2%Returning production67.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
UTAH −6.5 · O/U 50.5
Sportsbook win chance
UTAH 66.4%
Market-adjusted win chance
UTAH 68.8%
Model-only win chance
UTAH 62.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadHouston +6.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalOver 56.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
MoneylineUtah −225-2.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Arizona Stadium
Iowa State3-3
Projected19.618.7
Arizona5-1
Projected30.931.2
ISU 22%win chance78% ARIZ
ISU 19%win chance81% ARIZ
MoneylineARIZ −395 · ISU +310
Market lineARIZ −10.0
Market total50.5
Projected winnerARIZ 78% ARIZ 81%
Model lineARIZ −10.1ARIZ −11.3
Model total50.449.6
Model pickArizona −10.0 50% Arizona −10.0 1.3 pts
Total pickUnder 50.5 50% Under 50.5 0.9 pts
Team statsStat edges: ISU 9 · ARIZ 19 · even 1 ARIZ leads
ISUARIZ
Offense
29.7Points / game35.7
359.7Total yards / game456.5
5.83Yards / play6.83
178.2Passing yards / game303.8
7.03Yards / pass attempt9.02
58.6%Completion %72.3%
181.5Rushing yards / game152.7
5.00Yards / carry4.60
31.0%Third-down conversion %55.6%
0.83Turnovers / game1.33
1.33Sacks allowed / game2.67
Defense
21.7Points allowed / game19.0
352.3Yards allowed / game330.5
5.84Yards / play allowed4.87
198.5Passing yards allowed / game214.2
7.73Yards / pass attempt allowed6.49
153.8Rushing yards allowed / game116.3
4.44Yards / carry allowed3.34
31.6%Third-down % allowed40.7%
1.33Takeaways / game0.83
1.50Sacks / game2.50
Advanced
+0.145Offense PPA / play+0.288
+0.074Defense PPA / play allowed−0.045
39.4%Offense success rate51.1%
40.3%Defense success rate allowed34.7%
1.32Offense explosiveness1.28
1.26Explosiveness allowed1.46
58.5Plays / game (pace)58.0
670Roster talent (247 composite)700
1.7%Returning production64.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
ARIZ −10.0 · O/U 50.5
Sportsbook win chance
ARIZ 76.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
ARIZ 78.2%
Model-only win chance
ARIZ 80.5%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadArizona −10.0 (−110)-4.0%pass
TotalUnder 50.5 (−110)-4.1%pass
MoneylineArizona −395-3.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Mountain America Stadium
Kansas State4-2
Projected30.130.3
Arizona State3-3
Projected26.824.9
KSU 58%win chance42% ASU
KSU 63%win chance37% ASU
MoneylineKSU −155 · ASU +130
Market lineKSU −3.0
Market total56.5
Projected winnerKSU 58% KSU 63%
Model lineKSU −3.1KSU −4.6
Model total56.154.7
Model pickKansas State −3.0 50% Kansas State −3.0 1.6 pts
Total pickUnder 56.5 51% Under 56.5 1.8 pts
Team statsStat edges: KSU 21 · ASU 4 · even 4 KSU leads
KSUASU
Offense
35.5Points / game31.3
464.7Total yards / game420.3
6.58Yards / play6.20
224.8Passing yards / game276.7
6.99Yards / pass attempt7.83
63.7%Completion %63.7%
239.8Rushing yards / game143.7
6.23Yards / carry4.42
59.3%Third-down conversion %30.8%
1.00Turnovers / game1.67
0.50Sacks allowed / game2.50
Defense
20.0Points allowed / game32.0
296.3Yards allowed / game373.2
5.07Yards / play allowed5.61
136.3Passing yards allowed / game216.3
6.10Yards / pass attempt allowed6.39
160.0Rushing yards allowed / game156.8
4.42Yards / carry allowed4.80
35.4%Third-down % allowed37.6%
0.67Takeaways / game1.00
2.17Sacks / game1.83
Advanced
+0.239Offense PPA / play+0.082
+0.067Defense PPA / play allowed+0.113
48.4%Offense success rate44.6%
35.0%Defense success rate allowed41.3%
1.22Offense explosiveness1.24
1.41Explosiveness allowed1.25
61.3Plays / game (pace)53.5
719Roster talent (247 composite)722
71.4%Returning production15.5%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
KSU −3.0 · O/U 56.5
Sportsbook win chance
ASU 41.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
ASU 42.3%
Model-only win chance
ASU 36.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadKansas State −3.0 (−110)-3.6%pass
TotalUnder 56.5 (−110)-3.0%pass
MoneylineArizona State +130-3.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Nippert Stadium
10Texas Tech6-0
Projected34.635.1
Cincinnati4-2
Projected22.022.3
TTU 80%win chance20% CIN
TTU 80%win chance20% CIN
MoneylineTTU −425 · CIN +330
Market lineTTU −11.5
Market total55.5
Projected winnerTTU 80% TTU 80%
Model lineTTU −11.5TTU −12.0
Model total55.756.7
Model pickTexas Tech −11.5 50% Texas Tech −11.5 0.5 pts
Total pickOver 55.5 50% Over 55.5 1.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: TTU 17 · CIN 11 · even 1 TTU leads
TTUCIN
Offense
37.8Points / game35.2
422.5Total yards / game460.0
6.34Yards / play6.99
229.8Passing yards / game228.8
7.93Yards / pass attempt8.53
67.8%Completion %72.0%
192.7Rushing yards / game231.2
5.12Yards / carry5.93
42.9%Third-down conversion %49.4%
1.50Turnovers / game0.33
1.33Sacks allowed / game1.67
Defense
17.7Points allowed / game26.8
363.8Yards allowed / game434.3
5.15Yards / play allowed6.16
281.7Passing yards allowed / game294.0
6.71Yards / pass attempt allowed8.02
82.2Rushing yards allowed / game140.3
2.87Yards / carry allowed4.15
38.5%Third-down % allowed45.7%
2.00Takeaways / game1.17
2.83Sacks / game2.17
Advanced
+0.198Offense PPA / play+0.327
−0.089Defense PPA / play allowed+0.204
49.1%Offense success rate46.6%
35.6%Defense success rate allowed45.6%
1.13Offense explosiveness1.42
1.38Explosiveness allowed1.26
61.7Plays / game (pace)59.3
768Roster talent (247 composite)634
53.4%Returning production8.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
TTU −11.5 · O/U 56.5
Sportsbook win chance
CIN 22.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
CIN 20.4%
Model-only win chance
CIN 20.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadTexas Tech −11.5 (−110)-4.5%pass
TotalOver 55.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
MoneylineTexas Tech −425-2.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Virginia Tech5-2
Projected25.324.6
Clemson4-2
Projected24.324.3
VT 52%win chance48% CLEM
VT 50%win chance50% CLEM
MoneylineVT −112 · CLEM −108
Market lineVT −1.5
Market total49.5
Projected winnerVT 52% CLEM 50%
Model lineVT −1.5VT −0.8
Model total49.348.5
Model pickClemson +1.5 50% Clemson +1.5 0.7 pts
Total pickUnder 49.5 50% Under 49.5 1.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: VT 17 · CLEM 5 · even 7 VT leads
VTCLEM
Offense
37.1Points / game22.3
451.3Total yards / game340.7
6.22Yards / play4.88
301.6Passing yards / game187.8
8.65Yards / pass attempt5.87
73.0%Completion %63.5%
149.7Rushing yards / game152.8
3.97Yards / carry4.04
41.0%Third-down conversion %33.3%
1.43Turnovers / game1.83
2.43Sacks allowed / game2.83
Defense
21.1Points allowed / game21.5
314.7Yards allowed / game330.8
5.22Yards / play allowed5.05
227.3Passing yards allowed / game189.3
7.54Yards / pass attempt allowed6.17
87.4Rushing yards allowed / game141.5
2.90Yards / carry allowed4.06
32.6%Third-down % allowed33.3%
0.86Takeaways / game1.17
3.14Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.276Offense PPA / play−0.057
+0.019Defense PPA / play allowed−0.013
48.5%Offense success rate35.1%
35.5%Defense success rate allowed41.3%
1.32Offense explosiveness1.15
1.32Explosiveness allowed1.14
65.1Plays / game (pace)59.7
769Roster talent (247 composite)863
36.7%Returning production41.4%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
VT −1.5 · O/U 49.5
Sportsbook win chance
CLEM 49.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
CLEM 48.4%
Model-only win chance
CLEM 50.1%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadClemson +1.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
TotalUnder 49.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
MoneylineVirginia Tech −112-3.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Oregon4-2
Projected32.934.5
Illinois3-3
Projected19.922.4
ORE 80%win chance20% ILL
ORE 79%win chance21% ILL
MoneylineORE −425 · ILL +330
Market lineORE −12.5
Market total51.5
Projected winnerORE 80% ORE 79%
Model lineORE −12.4ORE −10.9
Model total52.256.1
Model pickIllinois +12.5 50% Illinois +12.5 1.6 pts
Total pickOver 51.5 52% Over 51.5 4.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: ORE 17 · ILL 8 · even 4 ORE leads
OREILL
Offense
37.0Points / game31.8
420.3Total yards / game405.5
5.98Yards / play6.52
283.3Passing yards / game254.7
7.80Yards / pass attempt7.88
64.7%Completion %66.0%
137.0Rushing yards / game150.8
4.03Yards / carry5.06
37.0%Third-down conversion %44.8%
1.83Turnovers / game0.67
1.50Sacks allowed / game1.00
Defense
20.7Points allowed / game27.8
327.3Yards allowed / game375.2
4.95Yards / play allowed5.82
215.7Passing yards allowed / game248.3
6.77Yards / pass attempt allowed8.05
111.7Rushing yards allowed / game126.8
3.25Yards / carry allowed3.77
25.9%Third-down % allowed44.7%
1.83Takeaways / game0.50
1.83Sacks / game0.83
Advanced
+0.125Offense PPA / play+0.260
−0.062Defense PPA / play allowed+0.293
41.9%Offense success rate50.1%
34.3%Defense success rate allowed45.9%
1.27Offense explosiveness1.29
1.12Explosiveness allowed1.28
61.8Plays / game (pace)61.0
984Roster talent (247 composite)704
75.3%Returning production21.1%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
ORE −12.5 · O/U 51.5
Sportsbook win chance
ILL 22.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
ILL 19.7%
Model-only win chance
ILL 21.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadIllinois +12.5 (−110)-4.3%pass
TotalOver 51.5 (−110)-1.0%pass
MoneylineOregon −425-2.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
17Iowa5-1
Projected23.823.8
Minnesota4-2
Projected17.718.6
IOWA 65%win chance35% MINN
IOWA 63%win chance37% MINN
MoneylineIOWA −205 · MINN +170
Market lineIOWA −5.5
Market total41.5
Projected winnerIOWA 65% IOWA 63%
Model lineIOWA −5.4IOWA −4.3
Model total41.742.8
Model pickMinnesota +5.5 50% Minnesota +5.5 1.2 pts
Total pickOver 41.5 50% Over 41.5 1.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: IOWA 18 · MINN 7 · even 4 IOWA leads
IOWAMINN
Offense
31.0Points / game28.8
403.2Total yards / game341.3
6.54Yards / play5.43
209.2Passing yards / game236.5
7.01Yards / pass attempt6.92
62.6%Completion %65.4%
194.0Rushing yards / game104.8
6.09Yards / carry3.66
39.4%Third-down conversion %37.3%
0.50Turnovers / game1.17
0.83Sacks allowed / game0.67
Defense
14.5Points allowed / game21.8
293.3Yards allowed / game288.8
4.58Yards / play allowed5.01
208.7Passing yards allowed / game159.7
6.88Yards / pass attempt allowed6.43
84.7Rushing yards allowed / game129.2
2.51Yards / carry allowed3.93
33.7%Third-down % allowed30.9%
0.83Takeaways / game1.33
3.17Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.264Offense PPA / play+0.060
−0.047Defense PPA / play allowed−0.002
49.1%Offense success rate42.3%
31.3%Defense success rate allowed38.7%
1.24Offense explosiveness1.21
1.15Explosiveness allowed1.30
50.7Plays / game (pace)53.7
723Roster talent (247 composite)729
34.2%Returning production64.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
IOWA −4.5 · O/U 42.5
Sportsbook win chance
MINN 35.5%
Market-adjusted win chance
MINN 35.0%
Model-only win chance
MINN 37.2%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMinnesota +5.5 (−110)-4.3%pass
TotalOver 41.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
MoneylineIowa −205-3.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 AM ET
Rose Bowl
Michigan State2-5
Projected16.815.4
12UCLA6-0
Projected30.632.2
MSU 17%win chance83% UCLA
MSU 12%win chance88% UCLA
MoneylineUCLA −535 · MSU +400
Market lineUCLA −13.5
Market total47.5
Projected winnerUCLA 83% UCLA 88%
Model lineUCLA −13.6UCLA −17.1
Model total47.547.6
Model pickUCLA −13.5 50% UCLA −13.5 3.6 pts
Total pickOver 47.5 50% Over 47.5 0.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: MSU 2 · UCLA 26 · even 1 UCLA leads
MSUUCLA
Offense
21.3Points / game35.5
310.7Total yards / game445.8
4.84Yards / play6.62
191.6Passing yards / game214.8
6.81Yards / pass attempt8.16
66.0%Completion %61.4%
119.1Rushing yards / game231.0
3.31Yards / carry5.63
40.2%Third-down conversion %48.8%
1.14Turnovers / game1.50
2.86Sacks allowed / game1.50
Defense
25.4Points allowed / game16.2
342.6Yards allowed / game292.3
5.56Yards / play allowed4.59
201.9Passing yards allowed / game194.7
7.68Yards / pass attempt allowed6.28
140.7Rushing yards allowed / game97.7
3.99Yards / carry allowed2.99
42.0%Third-down % allowed26.6%
0.43Takeaways / game3.17
1.71Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
+0.021Offense PPA / play+0.167
+0.187Defense PPA / play allowed−0.168
43.9%Offense success rate45.4%
42.2%Defense success rate allowed34.0%
1.07Offense explosiveness1.19
1.41Explosiveness allowed1.12
62.0Plays / game (pace)64.0
685Roster talent (247 composite)774
20.9%Returning production57.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
UCLA −13.5 · O/U 47.5
Sportsbook win chance
UCLA 80.8%
Market-adjusted win chance
UCLA 82.9%
Model-only win chance
UCLA 87.7%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadUCLA −13.5 (−110)-3.6%pass
TotalOver 47.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
MoneylineUCLA −535-2.8%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
22LSU5-2
Projected28.929.8
Auburn4-2
Projected21.721.0
LSU 68%win chance32% AUB
LSU 71%win chance29% AUB
MoneylineLSU −245 · AUB +200
Market lineLSU −6.5
Market total50.5
Projected winnerLSU 68% LSU 71%
Model lineLSU −6.5LSU −7.2
Model total50.550.7
Model pickLSU −6.5 50% LSU −6.5 0.7 pts
Total pickOver 50.5 50% Over 50.5 0.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: LSU 23 · AUB 3 · even 3 LSU leads
LSUAUB
Offense
40.4Points / game26.8
504.0Total yards / game393.7
6.35Yards / play5.58
307.9Passing yards / game211.7
8.52Yards / pass attempt6.65
67.2%Completion %63.9%
196.1Rushing yards / game182.0
4.53Yards / carry4.71
53.3%Third-down conversion %45.6%
1.57Turnovers / game1.50
1.71Sacks allowed / game3.83
Defense
15.9Points allowed / game21.8
256.6Yards allowed / game371.0
4.29Yards / play allowed5.06
168.3Passing yards allowed / game228.0
5.89Yards / pass attempt allowed6.87
88.3Rushing yards allowed / game143.0
2.82Yards / carry allowed3.56
30.6%Third-down % allowed34.4%
1.29Takeaways / game1.83
3.43Sacks / game2.67
Advanced
+0.272Offense PPA / play+0.093
−0.185Defense PPA / play allowed+0.022
52.8%Offense success rate40.8%
28.4%Defense success rate allowed40.8%
1.20Offense explosiveness1.28
1.20Explosiveness allowed1.16
61.7Plays / game (pace)68.2
932Roster talent (247 composite)828
21.2%Returning production14.4%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
LSU −6.5 · O/U 50.5
Sportsbook win chance
AUB 31.9%
Market-adjusted win chance
AUB 32.3%
Model-only win chance
AUB 28.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadLSU −6.5 (−110)-4.1%pass
TotalOver 50.5 (−110)-4.4%pass
MoneylineAuburn +200-3.6%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET · ESPN2
Amon G. Carter Stadium
West Virginia4-3
Projected25.221.3
TCU3-3
Projected33.735.0
WVU 28%win chance72% TCU
WVU 17%win chance83% TCU
MoneylineTCU −258 · WVU +210
Market lineTCU −7.0
Market total58.5
Projected winnerTCU 72% TCU 83%
Model lineTCU −7.1TCU −13.6
Model total58.155.4
Model pickTCU −7.0 51% TCU −7.0 6.6 pts
Total pickUnder 58.5 51% Under 58.5 3.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: WVU 12 · TCU 16 · even 1 TCU leads
WVUTCU
Offense
37.6Points / game24.0
497.1Total yards / game392.3
6.44Yards / play5.94
224.7Passing yards / game282.3
10.56Yards / pass attempt8.73
57.7%Completion %66.5%
272.4Rushing yards / game110.0
4.88Yards / carry3.27
49.5%Third-down conversion %41.5%
1.00Turnovers / game1.50
1.71Sacks allowed / game2.83
Defense
34.0Points allowed / game12.2
483.9Yards allowed / game264.2
7.22Yards / play allowed4.33
310.1Passing yards allowed / game172.2
10.19Yards / pass attempt allowed5.94
173.7Rushing yards allowed / game92.0
4.75Yards / carry allowed2.88
38.1%Third-down % allowed30.2%
1.00Takeaways / game1.33
2.14Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.270Offense PPA / play+0.092
+0.271Defense PPA / play allowed−0.083
45.6%Offense success rate41.9%
47.3%Defense success rate allowed34.8%
1.37Offense explosiveness1.30
1.34Explosiveness allowed1.11
73.1Plays / game (pace)64.2
708Roster talent (247 composite)731
14.0%Returning production22.4%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
TCU −7.0 · O/U 58.5
Sportsbook win chance
TCU 69.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
TCU 72.5%
Model-only win chance
TCU 82.8%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadTCU −7.0 (−110)-2.8%pass
TotalUnder 58.5 (−110)-2.3%pass
MoneylineTCU −258-1.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET · CW
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
California3-4
Projected18.820.7
24SMU5-1
Projected34.734.2
CAL 14%win chance86% SMU
CAL 17%win chance83% SMU
MoneylineSMU −800 · CAL +550
Market lineSMU −16.5
Market total52.5
Projected winnerSMU 86% SMU 83%
Model lineSMU −16.2SMU −13.4
Model total52.954.6
Model pickCalifornia +16.5 50% California +16.5 3.1 pts
Total pickOver 52.5 51% Over 52.5 2.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: CAL 2 · SMU 25 · even 2 SMU leads
CALSMU
Offense
23.9Points / game32.7
378.4Total yards / game470.8
5.35Yards / play6.84
288.1Passing yards / game329.3
6.66Yards / pass attempt9.50
65.3%Completion %73.6%
90.3Rushing yards / game141.5
3.29Yards / carry4.14
37.5%Third-down conversion %48.1%
1.14Turnovers / game1.50
1.57Sacks allowed / game1.17
Defense
27.7Points allowed / game21.3
388.3Yards allowed / game303.0
5.97Yards / play allowed4.93
207.1Passing yards allowed / game164.8
7.07Yards / pass attempt allowed5.82
181.1Rushing yards allowed / game138.2
5.07Yards / carry allowed4.17
42.4%Third-down % allowed26.5%
1.29Takeaways / game1.00
1.86Sacks / game3.00
Advanced
−0.019Offense PPA / play+0.295
+0.203Defense PPA / play allowed+0.033
38.6%Offense success rate51.5%
40.6%Defense success rate allowed36.9%
1.22Offense explosiveness1.31
1.51Explosiveness allowed1.32
64.0Plays / game (pace)65.0
752Roster talent (247 composite)764
58.3%Returning production56.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
SMU −16.5 · O/U 52.5
Sportsbook win chance
SMU 85.2%
Market-adjusted win chance
SMU 86.4%
Model-only win chance
SMU 82.5%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadCalifornia +16.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalOver 52.5 (−110)-3.3%pass
MoneylineSMU −800-3.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Pittsburgh5-2
Projected15.017.4
3Miami6-0
Projected37.437.2
PITT 6%win chance94% MIA
PITT 9%win chance91% MIA
MoneylineMIA −2400 · PITT +1200
Market lineMIA −23.5
Market total51.5
Projected winnerMIA 94% MIA 91%
Model lineMIA −23.3MIA −20.6
Model total51.854.3
Model pickPittsburgh +23.5 50% Pittsburgh +23.5 2.9 pts
Total pickOver 51.5 51% Over 51.5 2.8 pts
Team statsStat edges: PITT 3 · MIA 21 · even 5 MIA leads
PITTMIA
Offense
32.9Points / game48.5
450.1Total yards / game559.5
6.30Yards / play8.07
284.6Passing yards / game333.0
8.03Yards / pass attempt10.35
63.7%Completion %80.3%
165.6Rushing yards / game226.5
4.60Yards / carry6.09
42.9%Third-down conversion %51.6%
1.00Turnovers / game0.67
1.14Sacks allowed / game1.00
Defense
16.4Points allowed / game14.0
306.3Yards allowed / game281.8
5.04Yards / play allowed4.65
247.9Passing yards allowed / game223.3
7.78Yards / pass attempt allowed6.26
58.4Rushing yards allowed / game58.5
2.02Yards / carry allowed2.34
33.3%Third-down % allowed34.1%
1.57Takeaways / game1.33
2.14Sacks / game3.00
Advanced
+0.184Offense PPA / play+0.545
−0.034Defense PPA / play allowed−0.044
44.2%Offense success rate59.2%
32.3%Defense success rate allowed34.6%
1.24Offense explosiveness1.29
1.47Explosiveness allowed1.17
63.0Plays / game (pace)53.8
675Roster talent (247 composite)886
39.7%Returning production36.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
MIA −23.5 · O/U 53.5
Sportsbook win chance
MIA 92.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
MIA 93.7%
Model-only win chance
MIA 91.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadPittsburgh +23.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalOver 51.5 (−110)-2.7%pass
MoneylineMiami −2400-2.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET · Fox
Michigan Stadium
5Indiana6-1
Projected26.326.8
Michigan4-2
Projected16.318.6
IU 74%win chance26% MICH
IU 70%win chance30% MICH
MoneylineIU −360 · MICH +285
Market lineIU −8.5
Market total42.5
Projected winnerIU 74% IU 70%
Model lineIU −8.4IU −7.0
Model total43.145.2
Model pickMichigan +8.5 50% Michigan +8.5 1.5 pts
Total pickOver 42.5 51% Over 42.5 2.7 pts
Team statsStat edges: IU 17 · MICH 9 · even 3 IU leads
IUMICH
Offense
36.6Points / game22.7
449.3Total yards / game313.3
7.42Yards / play5.43
249.1Passing yards / game165.7
9.85Yards / pass attempt7.36
63.8%Completion %58.5%
200.1Rushing yards / game147.7
5.67Yards / carry4.20
46.2%Third-down conversion %40.8%
0.43Turnovers / game1.83
1.43Sacks allowed / game1.50
Defense
12.9Points allowed / game16.2
270.4Yards allowed / game256.5
4.32Yards / play allowed4.11
195.0Passing yards allowed / game166.8
6.63Yards / pass attempt allowed5.79
75.4Rushing yards allowed / game89.7
2.28Yards / carry allowed2.68
33.7%Third-down % allowed32.5%
0.86Takeaways / game1.33
3.43Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.405Offense PPA / play+0.081
−0.064Defense PPA / play allowed−0.102
47.6%Offense success rate41.6%
33.6%Defense success rate allowed33.9%
1.47Offense explosiveness1.22
1.38Explosiveness allowed1.17
52.7Plays / game (pace)56.5
735Roster talent (247 composite)890
16.6%Returning production69.2%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
IU −6.0 · O/U 52.5
Sportsbook win chance
MICH 24.9%
Market-adjusted win chance
MICH 25.8%
Model-only win chance
MICH 30.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMichigan +8.5 (−110)-4.0%pass
TotalOver 42.5 (−110)-2.2%pass
MoneylineMichigan +285-2.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET · Peacock
Ryan Field
Rutgers2-4
Projected21.521.2
25Northwestern5-1
Projected37.536.0
RUTG 14%win chance86% NU
RUTG 15%win chance85% NU
MoneylineNU −1000 · RUTG +650
Market lineNU −16.5
Market total58.5
Projected winnerNU 86% NU 85%
Model lineNU −16.4NU −14.4
Model total58.256.5
Model pickRutgers +16.5 50% Rutgers +16.5 2.1 pts
Total pickUnder 58.5 51% Under 58.5 2.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: RUTG 2 · NU 21 · even 6 NU leads
RUTGNU
Offense
31.2Points / game33.5
403.8Total yards / game424.5
6.04Yards / play6.70
265.8Passing yards / game233.0
8.76Yards / pass attempt9.78
59.9%Completion %68.5%
138.0Rushing yards / game191.5
3.78Yards / carry4.85
41.9%Third-down conversion %43.5%
1.83Turnovers / game0.33
2.33Sacks allowed / game2.33
Defense
31.8Points allowed / game17.0
402.5Yards allowed / game368.0
6.58Yards / play allowed5.29
217.3Passing yards allowed / game230.5
7.72Yards / pass attempt allowed6.17
185.2Rushing yards allowed / game137.5
5.61Yards / carry allowed4.27
37.3%Third-down % allowed37.8%
1.00Takeaways / game1.50
1.50Sacks / game1.50
Advanced
+0.166Offense PPA / play+0.348
+0.251Defense PPA / play allowed+0.064
46.8%Offense success rate50.2%
48.0%Defense success rate allowed43.6%
1.37Offense explosiveness1.35
1.31Explosiveness allowed1.13
55.8Plays / game (pace)59.7
709Roster talent (247 composite)688
44.4%Returning production88.5%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
NU −16.5 · O/U 58.5
Sportsbook win chance
NU 87.2%
Market-adjusted win chance
NU 86.5%
Model-only win chance
NU 84.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadRutgers +16.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
TotalUnder 58.5 (−110)-3.0%pass
MoneylineRutgers +650-1.4%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET · ESPNU
FAU Stadium
Rice1-6
Projected23.520.8
Florida Atlantic4-2
Projected35.536.7
RICE 20%win chance80% FAU
RICE 14%win chance86% FAU
MoneylineFAU −410 · RICE +320
Market lineFAU −10.5
Market total58.5
Projected winnerFAU 80% FAU 86%
Model lineFAU −10.8FAU −16.0
Model total58.356.8
Model pickFlorida Atlantic −10.5 51% Florida Atlantic −10.5 5.5 pts
Total pickUnder 58.5 51% Under 58.5 1.7 pts
Team statsStat edges: RICE 11 · FAU 14 · even 4 FAU leads
RICEFAU
Offense
17.0Points / game35.0
318.6Total yards / game422.3
5.09Yards / play5.59
78.7Passing yards / game307.3
5.92Yards / pass attempt7.59
48.4%Completion %69.5%
239.9Rushing yards / game115.0
4.87Yards / carry3.29
30.3%Third-down conversion %53.1%
1.43Turnovers / game1.00
1.86Sacks allowed / game1.83
Defense
29.0Points allowed / game31.5
372.1Yards allowed / game416.5
5.61Yards / play allowed6.36
188.7Passing yards allowed / game198.3
6.57Yards / pass attempt allowed7.83
183.4Rushing yards allowed / game218.2
4.88Yards / carry allowed5.43
43.2%Third-down % allowed39.5%
0.57Takeaways / game1.33
1.43Sacks / game1.33
Advanced
−0.079Offense PPA / play+0.304
+0.154Defense PPA / play allowed+0.280
36.4%Offense success rate49.8%
42.8%Defense success rate allowed42.8%
1.20Offense explosiveness1.27
1.34Explosiveness allowed1.56
59.4Plays / game (pace)57.0
590Roster talent (247 composite)593
39.4%Returning production68.4%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
FAU −10.5 · O/U 58.5
Sportsbook win chance
FAU 77.2%
Market-adjusted win chance
FAU 79.8%
Model-only win chance
FAU 86.2%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadFlorida Atlantic −10.5 (−110)-3.4%pass
TotalUnder 58.5 (−110)-3.2%pass
MoneylineFlorida Atlantic −410-2.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

12:00 PM ET · CBSSN
Glass Bowl
Western Michigan5-2
Projected22.122.1
Toledo5-2
Projected26.426.4
WMU 38%win chance62% TOL
WMU 38%win chance62% TOL
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerTOL 62% TOL 62%
Model lineTOL −3.5TOL −3.5
Model total48.248.2
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: WMU 5 · TOL 20 · even 4 TOL leads
WMUTOL
Offense
25.0Points / game36.3
322.3Total yards / game459.0
5.40Yards / play6.69
157.6Passing yards / game273.4
7.07Yards / pass attempt8.51
67.3%Completion %65.3%
164.7Rushing yards / game185.6
4.40Yards / carry5.09
44.8%Third-down conversion %43.6%
0.43Turnovers / game1.14
1.29Sacks allowed / game0.43
Defense
16.9Points allowed / game23.6
336.3Yards allowed / game322.0
5.01Yards / play allowed4.58
191.4Passing yards allowed / game196.6
6.87Yards / pass attempt allowed5.83
144.9Rushing yards allowed / game125.4
3.69Yards / carry allowed3.43
38.5%Third-down % allowed36.0%
1.00Takeaways / game1.14
2.29Sacks / game2.86
Advanced
+0.171Offense PPA / play+0.240
+0.078Defense PPA / play allowed−0.050
43.9%Offense success rate43.7%
42.6%Defense success rate allowed32.8%
1.11Offense explosiveness1.44
1.12Explosiveness allowed1.41
54.1Plays / game (pace)60.7
572Roster talent (247 composite)556
99.7%Returning production66.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
TOL 62.3%
Model-only win chance
TOL 62.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +19.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · ESPN+
Dix Stadium
Akron1-6
Projected19.723.5
Kent State2-5
Projected23.923.2
AKR 38%win chance62% KENT
AKR 50%win chance50% KENT
MoneylineKENT −155 · AKR +130
Market lineKENT −3.5
Market total43.5
Projected winnerKENT 62% KENT 50%
Model lineKENT −3.4AKR −0.7
Model total43.946.8
Model pickAkron +3.5 51% Akron +3.5 4.2 pts
Total pickOver 43.5 51% Over 43.5 3.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: AKR 15 · KENT 11 · even 3 AKR leads
AKRKENT
Offense
18.9Points / game12.0
339.6Total yards / game272.4
5.22Yards / play4.29
206.9Passing yards / game169.9
6.44Yards / pass attempt5.95
64.4%Completion %55.5%
132.7Rushing yards / game102.6
4.04Yards / carry2.93
38.7%Third-down conversion %36.7%
2.00Turnovers / game1.57
2.71Sacks allowed / game1.86
Defense
32.4Points allowed / game32.0
417.7Yards allowed / game363.6
6.71Yards / play allowed6.00
217.3Passing yards allowed / game222.1
7.46Yards / pass attempt allowed8.45
200.4Rushing yards allowed / game141.4
6.05Yards / carry allowed4.12
38.9%Third-down % allowed35.1%
1.00Takeaways / game0.86
0.57Sacks / game2.14
Advanced
+0.037Offense PPA / play−0.070
+0.219Defense PPA / play allowed+0.142
39.5%Offense success rate32.4%
43.9%Defense success rate allowed47.0%
1.13Offense explosiveness1.34
1.36Explosiveness allowed1.17
55.4Plays / game (pace)55.9
547Roster talent (247 composite)523
91.8%Returning production64.1%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
KENT −3.5 · O/U 43.5
Sportsbook win chance
KENT 58.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
KENT 61.9%
Model-only win chance
KENT 50.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadAkron +3.5 (−110)-3.3%pass
TotalOver 43.5 (−110)-1.9%pass
MoneylineKent State −155-1.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

1:00 PM ET · ESPN+
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Miami (OH)4-3
Projected20.721.8
Central Michigan3-4
Projected21.722.0
M-OH 46%win chance54% CMU
M-OH 49%win chance51% CMU
MoneylineCMU −115 · M-OH −105
Market lineCMU −1.5
Market total42.5
Projected winnerCMU 54% CMU 51%
Model lineCMU −1.4CMU −0.6
Model total42.844.1
Model pickMiami (OH) +1.5 50% Miami (OH) +1.5 0.9 pts
Total pickOver 42.5 51% Over 42.5 1.6 pts
Team statsStat edges: M-OH 17 · CMU 9 · even 3 M-OH leads
M-OHCMU
Offense
26.9Points / game16.6
357.9Total yards / game292.4
6.33Yards / play4.90
216.3Passing yards / game108.1
8.75Yards / pass attempt5.29
59.5%Completion %58.0%
141.6Rushing yards / game184.3
4.44Yards / carry4.69
34.2%Third-down conversion %34.8%
0.71Turnovers / game1.57
2.29Sacks allowed / game2.43
Defense
25.6Points allowed / game25.6
378.7Yards allowed / game358.9
5.87Yards / play allowed5.62
276.9Passing yards allowed / game174.3
7.63Yards / pass attempt allowed6.82
101.9Rushing yards allowed / game184.6
3.60Yards / carry allowed4.82
41.3%Third-down % allowed51.1%
1.14Takeaways / game1.71
2.00Sacks / game1.71
Advanced
+0.229Offense PPA / play−0.025
+0.066Defense PPA / play allowed+0.249
43.1%Offense success rate36.3%
40.3%Defense success rate allowed48.6%
1.48Offense explosiveness1.16
1.31Explosiveness allowed1.09
51.3Plays / game (pace)47.9
621Roster talent (247 composite)540
13.9%Returning production54.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
CMU −1.5 · O/U 42.5
Sportsbook win chance
CMU 51.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
CMU 53.6%
Model-only win chance
CMU 51.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMiami (OH) +1.5 (−110)-4.3%pass
TotalOver 42.5 (−110)-3.3%pass
MoneylineCentral Michigan −115-2.2%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET · ABC
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Texas A&M4-3
Projected18.118.8
6Alabama5-2
Projected33.530.4
TA&M 15%win chance85% ALA
TA&M 21%win chance79% ALA
MoneylineALA −675 · TA&M +490
Market lineALA −15.5
Market total51.5
Projected winnerALA 85% ALA 79%
Model lineALA −15.1ALA −10.3
Model total51.248.8
Model pickTexas A&M +15.5 51% Texas A&M +15.5 5.2 pts
Total pickUnder 51.5 51% Under 51.5 2.7 pts
Team statsStat edges: TA&M 9 · ALA 15 · even 5 ALA leads
TA&MALA
Offense
29.4Points / game39.3
356.9Total yards / game416.6
5.16Yards / play6.58
195.4Passing yards / game252.7
6.16Yards / pass attempt9.03
55.9%Completion %67.3%
161.4Rushing yards / game163.9
4.31Yards / carry4.64
42.7%Third-down conversion %43.4%
1.14Turnovers / game1.57
1.71Sacks allowed / game3.00
Defense
17.1Points allowed / game21.4
306.6Yards allowed / game337.9
5.38Yards / play allowed5.31
164.1Passing yards allowed / game230.9
7.18Yards / pass attempt allowed7.84
142.4Rushing yards allowed / game107.0
4.17Yards / carry allowed3.13
29.8%Third-down % allowed33.0%
1.43Takeaways / game2.29
0.71Sacks / game2.57
Advanced
+0.130Offense PPA / play+0.265
−0.042Defense PPA / play allowed−0.024
43.7%Offense success rate47.7%
36.7%Defense success rate allowed36.5%
1.11Offense explosiveness1.31
1.20Explosiveness allowed1.38
59.3Plays / game (pace)57.3
933Roster talent (247 composite)974
72.8%Returning production26.4%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
ALA −2.5 · O/U 54.5
Sportsbook win chance
ALA 83.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
ALA 85.4%
Model-only win chance
ALA 79.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadTexas A&M +15.5 (−110)-3.4%pass
TotalUnder 51.5 (−110)-2.4%pass
MoneylineAlabama −675-2.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
Oklahoma3-3
Projected23.924.5
16Mississippi State4-2
Projected22.924.3
OU 52%win chance48% MSST
OU 50%win chance50% MSST
MoneylineOU −125 · MSST +105
Market lineOU −1.5
Market total46.5
Projected winnerOU 52% MSST 50%
Model lineOU −1.5OU −0.7
Model total46.948.5
Model pickMississippi State +1.5 50% Mississippi State +1.5 0.8 pts
Total pickOver 46.5 51% Over 46.5 2.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: OU 13 · MSST 13 · even 3
OUMSST
Offense
21.3Points / game32.5
311.5Total yards / game454.3
4.97Yards / play6.43
219.0Passing yards / game277.8
7.34Yards / pass attempt8.55
64.2%Completion %65.1%
92.5Rushing yards / game176.5
2.82Yards / carry4.62
33.7%Third-down conversion %46.2%
2.33Turnovers / game1.33
2.67Sacks allowed / game2.67
Defense
18.2Points allowed / game28.5
260.7Yards allowed / game379.5
4.59Yards / play allowed5.49
151.3Passing yards allowed / game264.8
6.49Yards / pass attempt allowed7.29
109.3Rushing yards allowed / game114.7
3.26Yards / carry allowed3.49
25.6%Third-down % allowed40.0%
1.00Takeaways / game0.83
3.00Sacks / game2.50
Advanced
−0.022Offense PPA / play+0.197
−0.130Defense PPA / play allowed+0.115
38.7%Offense success rate48.0%
33.9%Defense success rate allowed45.3%
1.09Offense explosiveness1.22
1.18Explosiveness allowed1.07
57.2Plays / game (pace)58.2
851Roster talent (247 composite)805
63.2%Returning production33.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
OU −1.5 · O/U 46.5
Sportsbook win chance
MSST 46.8%
Market-adjusted win chance
MSST 48.4%
Model-only win chance
MSST 50.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadMississippi State +1.5 (−110)-4.3%pass
TotalOver 46.5 (−110)-2.9%pass
MoneylineMississippi State +105-2.5%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
14Tennessee6-1
Projected26.528.0
South Carolina3-3
Projected24.827.2
TENN 54%win chance46% SC
TENN 51%win chance49% SC
MoneylineTENN −135 · SC +114
Market lineTENN −2.5
Market total50.5
Projected winnerTENN 54% TENN 51%
Model lineTENN −2.4TENN −1.3
Model total51.054.7
Model pickSouth Carolina +2.5 50% South Carolina +2.5 1.2 pts
Total pickOver 50.5 52% Over 50.5 4.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: TENN 12 · SC 14 · even 3 SC leads
TENNSC
Offense
33.4Points / game37.7
405.1Total yards / game474.7
5.84Yards / play6.52
188.0Passing yards / game242.3
7.15Yards / pass attempt7.13
63.6%Completion %61.8%
217.1Rushing yards / game232.3
5.03Yards / carry5.98
36.6%Third-down conversion %47.7%
1.43Turnovers / game1.33
2.57Sacks allowed / game1.67
Defense
14.7Points allowed / game25.5
280.6Yards allowed / game340.8
4.58Yards / play allowed5.37
159.3Passing yards allowed / game237.2
5.47Yards / pass attempt allowed7.57
121.3Rushing yards allowed / game103.7
3.77Yards / carry allowed3.22
30.8%Third-down % allowed35.9%
1.86Takeaways / game0.83
4.14Sacks / game2.67
Advanced
+0.181Offense PPA / play+0.239
−0.154Defense PPA / play allowed+0.157
44.2%Offense success rate46.8%
35.1%Defense success rate allowed40.3%
1.18Offense explosiveness1.27
1.06Explosiveness allowed1.34
64.9Plays / game (pace)64.3
886Roster talent (247 composite)863
35.3%Returning production69.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
TENN −2.5 · O/U 51.5
Sportsbook win chance
SC 44.9%
Market-adjusted win chance
SC 46.3%
Model-only win chance
SC 48.8%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadSouth Carolina +2.5 (−110)-4.3%pass
TotalOver 50.5 (−110)-1.2%pass
MoneylineSouth Carolina +114-2.5%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET · ACC Network
Bobby Dodd Stadium
Boston College3-3
Projected22.020.4
Georgia Tech2-4
Projected27.627.9
BC 35%win chance65% GT
BC 30%win chance70% GT
MoneylineGT −192 · BC +160
Market lineGT −4.5
Market total49.5
Projected winnerGT 65% GT 70%
Model lineGT −4.7GT −6.7
Model total49.348.2
Model pickGeorgia Tech −4.5 50% Georgia Tech −4.5 2.2 pts
Total pickUnder 49.5 51% Under 49.5 1.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: BC 13 · GT 12 · even 4 BC leads
BCGT
Offense
20.3Points / game26.7
355.0Total yards / game381.8
5.49Yards / play6.13
210.3Passing yards / game254.7
7.51Yards / pass attempt7.92
58.3%Completion %70.5%
144.7Rushing yards / game127.2
3.95Yards / carry4.22
36.7%Third-down conversion %36.2%
1.67Turnovers / game1.17
2.67Sacks allowed / game2.00
Defense
23.0Points allowed / game27.2
328.8Yards allowed / game392.2
4.96Yards / play allowed5.68
169.3Passing yards allowed / game213.2
6.20Yards / pass attempt allowed7.90
159.5Rushing yards allowed / game179.0
4.09Yards / carry allowed4.26
37.2%Third-down % allowed43.2%
1.83Takeaways / game0.50
2.17Sacks / game1.83
Advanced
+0.002Offense PPA / play+0.222
+0.033Defense PPA / play allowed+0.216
38.7%Offense success rate45.5%
40.3%Defense success rate allowed42.9%
1.31Offense explosiveness1.29
1.18Explosiveness allowed1.29
65.5Plays / game (pace)59.7
660Roster talent (247 composite)752
15.6%Returning production12.6%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
GT −4.5 · O/U 49.5
Sportsbook win chance
GT 63.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
GT 65.4%
Model-only win chance
GT 70.1%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadGeorgia Tech −4.5 (−110)-4.0%pass
TotalUnder 49.5 (−110)-3.4%pass
MoneylineGeorgia Tech −192-2.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET · CBSSN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
North Texas4-2
Projected31.532.2
Navy2-4
Projected30.428.3
UNT 52%win chance48% NAVY
UNT 59%win chance41% NAVY
MoneylineUNT −122 · NAVY +102
Market lineUNT −1.5
Market total61.5
Projected winnerUNT 52% UNT 59%
Model lineUNT −1.7UNT −3.3
Model total61.259.4
Model pickNorth Texas −1.5 50% North Texas −1.5 1.8 pts
Total pickUnder 61.5 51% Under 61.5 2.1 pts
Team statsStat edges: UNT 17 · NAVY 7 · even 5 UNT leads
UNTNAVY
Offense
42.2Points / game28.2
527.2Total yards / game414.0
7.17Yards / play6.42
345.5Passing yards / game115.5
9.38Yards / pass attempt9.24
72.4%Completion %44.0%
181.7Rushing yards / game298.5
4.95Yards / carry5.74
48.8%Third-down conversion %43.5%
1.17Turnovers / game1.50
0.83Sacks allowed / game1.50
Defense
29.2Points allowed / game25.8
355.8Yards allowed / game346.5
5.52Yards / play allowed5.54
213.2Passing yards allowed / game247.7
7.85Yards / pass attempt allowed9.41
142.7Rushing yards allowed / game98.8
3.82Yards / carry allowed2.73
33.3%Third-down % allowed44.6%
1.50Takeaways / game0.50
2.33Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.427Offense PPA / play+0.211
+0.125Defense PPA / play allowed+0.135
49.5%Offense success rate46.1%
43.2%Defense success rate allowed37.0%
1.46Offense explosiveness1.26
1.21Explosiveness allowed1.48
61.0Plays / game (pace)60.8
602Roster talent (247 composite)196
2.5%Returning production13.8%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
UNT −1.5 · O/U 61.5
Sportsbook win chance
NAVY 47.4%
Market-adjusted win chance
NAVY 47.8%
Model-only win chance
NAVY 40.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadNorth Texas −1.5 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalUnder 61.5 (−110)-3.2%pass
MoneylineNavy +102-3.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET · MW+
Huskie Stadium
Hawai'i1-6
Projected27.625.7
Northern Illinois0-6
Projected18.521.5
HAW 72%win chance28% NIU
HAW 60%win chance40% NIU
MoneylineHAW −270 · NIU +220
Market lineHAW −7.5
Market total45.5
Projected winnerHAW 72% HAW 60%
Model lineHAW −7.4HAW −3.4
Model total45.947.2
Model pickNorthern Illinois +7.5 51% Northern Illinois +7.5 4.1 pts
Total pickOver 45.5 51% Over 45.5 1.7 pts
Team statsStat edges: HAW 16 · NIU 5 · even 8 HAW leads
HAWNIU
Offense
15.7Points / game14.2
345.1Total yards / game307.7
4.91Yards / play4.90
267.7Passing yards / game206.7
5.97Yards / pass attempt6.11
58.0%Completion %64.0%
77.4Rushing yards / game101.0
3.04Yards / carry3.48
36.3%Third-down conversion %30.9%
1.14Turnovers / game1.17
2.86Sacks allowed / game3.83
Defense
25.0Points allowed / game35.7
385.0Yards allowed / game414.5
6.11Yards / play allowed6.38
202.1Passing yards allowed / game186.0
7.86Yards / pass attempt allowed7.64
182.9Rushing yards allowed / game228.5
4.90Yards / carry allowed5.62
39.6%Third-down % allowed61.6%
0.86Takeaways / game1.00
1.43Sacks / game1.33
Advanced
+0.007Offense PPA / play−0.106
+0.189Defense PPA / play allowed+0.306
38.9%Offense success rate34.8%
44.6%Defense success rate allowed51.1%
1.13Offense explosiveness1.15
1.19Explosiveness allowed1.26
72.1Plays / game (pace)54.2
557Roster talent (247 composite)537
64.5%Returning production43.7%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
HAW −7.5 · O/U 45.5
Sportsbook win chance
NIU 30.0%
Market-adjusted win chance
NIU 27.9%
Model-only win chance
NIU 39.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadNorthern Illinois +7.5 (−110)-3.1%pass
TotalOver 45.5 (−110)-3.6%pass
MoneylineHawai'i −270-2.6%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET · ESPN+
Scheumann Stadium
Sacramento State1-6
Projected20.022.9
Ball State2-5
Projected30.329.4
SAC 24%win chance76% BALL
SAC 32%win chance68% BALL
MoneylineBALL −360 · SAC +285
Market lineBALL −9.5
Market total49.5
Projected winnerBALL 76% BALL 68%
Model lineBALL −8.9BALL −5.8
Model total50.051.7
Model pickSacramento State +9.5 51% Sacramento State +9.5 3.7 pts
Total pickOver 49.5 51% Over 49.5 2.2 pts
Team statsStat edges: SAC 11 · BALL 12 · even 5 BALL leads
SACBALL
Offense
15.0Points / game20.3
302.3Total yards / game326.1
4.63Yards / play5.14
194.7Passing yards / game190.9
5.59Yards / pass attempt5.99
55.7%Completion %64.1%
107.6Rushing yards / game135.3
3.54Yards / carry4.29
33.7%Third-down conversion %30.7%
1.86Turnovers / game1.00
1.86Sacks allowed / game1.86
Defense
32.7Points allowed / game37.9
365.0Yards allowed / game445.3
6.11Yards / play allowed6.66
188.9Passing yards allowed / game243.7
7.92Yards / pass attempt allowed8.32
176.1Rushing yards allowed / game201.6
4.91Yards / carry allowed5.37
38.0%Third-down % allowed45.7%
0.43Takeaways / game0.71
1.14Sacks / game1.43
Advanced
−0.123Offense PPA / play+0.067
+0.186Defense PPA / play allowed+0.314
37.5%Offense success rate37.1%
39.0%Defense success rate allowed45.7%
1.01Offense explosiveness1.38
1.43Explosiveness allowed1.45
45.7Plays / game (pace)54.9
561Roster talent (247 composite)564
—Returning production5.7%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
BALL −9.5 · O/U 49.5
Sportsbook win chance
BALL 75.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
BALL 76.3%
Model-only win chance
BALL 67.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadSacramento State +9.5 (−110)-3.4%pass
TotalOver 49.5 (−110)-2.8%pass
MoneylineBall State −360-3.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

3:30 PM ET · ESPN+
UB Stadium
Bowling Green2-5
Projected18.818.2
Buffalo4-3
Projected24.325.4
BGSU 35%win chance65% BUF
BGSU 31%win chance69% BUF
MoneylineBUF −180 · BGSU +150
Market lineBUF −4.5
Market total43.5
Projected winnerBUF 65% BUF 69%
Model lineBUF −4.6BUF −6.6
Model total43.643.9
Model pickBuffalo −4.5 50% Buffalo −4.5 2.1 pts
Total pickOver 43.5 50% Over 43.5 0.4 pts
Team statsStat edges: BGSU 9 · BUF 12 · even 8 BUF leads
BGSUBUF
Offense
18.0Points / game21.4
280.4Total yards / game324.3
4.85Yards / play4.35
174.4Passing yards / game159.0
7.02Yards / pass attempt4.95
65.5%Completion %50.7%
106.0Rushing yards / game165.3
3.21Yards / carry3.90
36.5%Third-down conversion %36.8%
1.14Turnovers / game1.57
1.57Sacks allowed / game2.43
Defense
29.6Points allowed / game25.6
383.9Yards allowed / game382.7
6.28Yards / play allowed5.80
174.3Passing yards allowed / game229.3
7.58Yards / pass attempt allowed7.33
209.6Rushing yards allowed / game153.4
5.49Yards / carry allowed4.42
32.0%Third-down % allowed33.3%
1.00Takeaways / game1.00
2.57Sacks / game1.43
Advanced
−0.032Offense PPA / play−0.001
+0.180Defense PPA / play allowed+0.107
39.1%Offense success rate33.1%
47.3%Defense success rate allowed38.3%
1.04Offense explosiveness1.24
1.27Explosiveness allowed1.29
50.3Plays / game (pace)73.1
568Roster talent (247 composite)549
-6.2%Returning production-0.8%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
BUF −4.5 · O/U 43.5
Sportsbook win chance
BUF 61.6%
Market-adjusted win chance
BUF 65.3%
Model-only win chance
BUF 69.5%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadBuffalo −4.5 (−110)-4.1%pass
TotalOver 43.5 (−110)-4.1%pass
MoneylineBuffalo −180-1.2%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

4:00 PM ET · ESPNU
Peden Stadium
Eastern Michigan4-4
Projected19.517.6
Ohio5-2
Projected30.231.8
EMU 23%win chance77% OHIO
EMU 16%win chance84% OHIO
MoneylineOHIO −360 · EMU +285
Market lineOHIO −9.5
Market total49.5
Projected winnerOHIO 77% OHIO 84%
Model lineOHIO −9.7OHIO −14.0
Model total49.449.1
Model pickOhio −9.5 51% Ohio −9.5 4.5 pts
Total pickUnder 49.5 50% Under 49.5 0.4 pts
Team statsStat edges: EMU 6 · OHIO 18 · even 5 OHIO leads
EMUOHIO
Offense
21.5Points / game30.4
320.0Total yards / game371.3
4.78Yards / play5.81
215.0Passing yards / game164.3
5.85Yards / pass attempt7.28
59.5%Completion %61.4%
105.0Rushing yards / game207.0
3.47Yards / carry5.01
41.9%Third-down conversion %51.6%
1.25Turnovers / game1.14
1.75Sacks allowed / game1.71
Defense
25.9Points allowed / game22.1
378.9Yards allowed / game337.1
5.99Yards / play allowed5.51
236.6Passing yards allowed / game198.4
7.76Yards / pass attempt allowed7.63
142.2Rushing yards allowed / game138.7
4.34Yards / carry allowed3.95
41.9%Third-down % allowed42.6%
1.12Takeaways / game0.71
1.50Sacks / game1.86
Advanced
+0.042Offense PPA / play+0.240
+0.127Defense PPA / play allowed+0.032
39.7%Offense success rate49.4%
42.6%Defense success rate allowed37.6%
1.18Offense explosiveness1.11
1.21Explosiveness allowed1.25
64.2Plays / game (pace)56.9
581Roster talent (247 composite)523
72.1%Returning production62.5%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
OHIO −9.5 · O/U 49.5
Sportsbook win chance
OHIO 75.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
OHIO 77.2%
Model-only win chance
OHIO 83.8%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadOhio −9.5 (−110)-3.5%pass
TotalUnder 49.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
MoneylineOhio −360-2.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

4:00 PM ET · ESPN+
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
UL Monroe0-6
Projected16.416.4
Troy3-3
Projected33.833.8
ULM 12%win chance88% TROY
ULM 12%win chance88% TROY
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerTROY 88% TROY 88%
Model lineTROY −17.5TROY −17.5
Model total49.949.9
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: ULM 4 · TROY 22 · even 3 TROY leads
ULMTROY
Offense
20.0Points / game24.3
341.3Total yards / game402.7
5.25Yards / play5.75
220.8Passing yards / game198.0
6.87Yards / pass attempt6.56
62.2%Completion %55.8%
120.5Rushing yards / game204.7
3.67Yards / carry5.14
29.6%Third-down conversion %36.5%
1.33Turnovers / game1.17
1.83Sacks allowed / game1.83
Defense
41.2Points allowed / game25.5
483.2Yards allowed / game350.0
6.87Yards / play allowed5.65
253.5Passing yards allowed / game212.0
9.11Yards / pass attempt allowed7.11
229.7Rushing yards allowed / game138.0
5.40Yards / carry allowed4.29
49.4%Third-down % allowed37.3%
0.67Takeaways / game1.17
1.50Sacks / game1.67
Advanced
−0.076Offense PPA / play+0.074
+0.289Defense PPA / play allowed+0.076
39.0%Offense success rate40.9%
49.2%Defense success rate allowed40.7%
1.12Offense explosiveness1.25
1.20Explosiveness allowed1.30
55.7Plays / game (pace)69.3
505Roster talent (247 composite)596
38.7%Returning production35.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
TROY 88.3%
Model-only win chance
TROY 88.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +68.6%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

5:00 PM ET · MW+
Mackay Stadium
San José State4-3
Projected19.819.8
Nevada2-4
Projected27.227.2
SJSU 30%win chance70% NEV
SJSU 30%win chance70% NEV
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerNEV 70% NEV 70%
Model lineNEV −6.6NEV −6.6
Model total47.047.0
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: SJSU 11 · NEV 13 · even 5 NEV leads
SJSUNEV
Offense
21.4Points / game26.0
384.7Total yards / game361.8
5.77Yards / play5.65
246.0Passing yards / game171.8
7.36Yards / pass attempt6.21
61.5%Completion %54.8%
138.7Rushing yards / game190.0
4.17Yards / carry5.23
34.4%Third-down conversion %37.2%
1.14Turnovers / game1.83
2.00Sacks allowed / game1.17
Defense
21.7Points allowed / game23.5
389.3Yards allowed / game339.7
5.40Yards / play allowed4.90
241.0Passing yards allowed / game155.3
6.91Yards / pass attempt allowed5.97
148.3Rushing yards allowed / game184.3
3.98Yards / carry allowed4.25
35.0%Third-down % allowed32.6%
1.14Takeaways / game0.50
3.86Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
+0.121Offense PPA / play+0.093
+0.073Defense PPA / play allowed+0.097
39.8%Offense success rate40.3%
42.9%Defense success rate allowed37.2%
1.18Offense explosiveness1.34
1.16Explosiveness allowed1.26
64.9Plays / game (pace)62.2
569Roster talent (247 composite)550
3.8%Returning production35.5%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
NEV 69.7%
Model-only win chance
NEV 69.7%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +33.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

5:00 PM ET · ESPN+
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Louisiana5-2
Projected28.428.4
Southern Miss1-5
Projected22.322.3
UL 65%win chance35% USM
UL 65%win chance35% USM
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerUL 65% UL 65%
Model lineUL −5.4UL −5.4
Model total50.650.6
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: UL 18 · USM 3 · even 8 UL leads
ULUSM
Offense
30.0Points / game24.2
377.7Total yards / game394.5
5.70Yards / play5.79
178.3Passing yards / game260.8
7.52Yards / pass attempt7.31
69.3%Completion %59.8%
199.4Rushing yards / game133.7
4.68Yards / carry4.11
41.9%Third-down conversion %32.9%
1.43Turnovers / game1.67
1.29Sacks allowed / game1.83
Defense
19.3Points allowed / game32.7
298.3Yards allowed / game446.7
4.98Yards / play allowed6.01
194.0Passing yards allowed / game194.7
6.20Yards / pass attempt allowed7.49
104.3Rushing yards allowed / game252.0
3.65Yards / carry allowed5.21
41.4%Third-down % allowed41.6%
2.00Takeaways / game1.17
1.29Sacks / game2.33
Advanced
+0.136Offense PPA / play+0.012
−0.087Defense PPA / play allowed+0.164
42.6%Offense success rate41.5%
40.0%Defense success rate allowed41.3%
1.26Offense explosiveness1.21
0.94Explosiveness allowed1.43
61.4Plays / game (pace)57.8
591Roster talent (247 composite)603
91.9%Returning production90.2%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
USM 35.0%
Model-only win chance
USM 35.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +24.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

5:00 PM ET · ESPN+
Joe Aillet Stadium
Old Dominion2-5
Projected14.814.8
Louisiana Tech4-2
Projected29.129.1
ODU 16%win chance84% LT
ODU 16%win chance84% LT
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerLT 84% LT 84%
Model lineLT −14.1LT −14.1
Model total44.144.1
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: ODU 8 · LT 17 · even 4 LT leads
ODULT
Offense
17.7Points / game33.3
266.3Total yards / game393.0
4.26Yards / play6.02
150.6Passing yards / game239.8
6.35Yards / pass attempt7.99
53.0%Completion %67.8%
115.7Rushing yards / game153.2
2.98Yards / carry4.33
33.0%Third-down conversion %42.3%
2.14Turnovers / game1.33
4.57Sacks allowed / game2.17
Defense
26.9Points allowed / game24.5
335.7Yards allowed / game353.8
4.78Yards / play allowed5.36
198.3Passing yards allowed / game205.3
6.34Yards / pass attempt allowed7.80
137.4Rushing yards allowed / game148.5
3.52Yards / carry allowed3.74
32.1%Third-down % allowed36.9%
1.71Takeaways / game2.17
1.86Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
−0.126Offense PPA / play+0.182
−0.012Defense PPA / play allowed−0.019
31.3%Offense success rate41.2%
38.2%Defense success rate allowed34.9%
1.38Offense explosiveness1.31
1.12Explosiveness allowed1.47
56.9Plays / game (pace)57.0
544Roster talent (247 composite)543
9.2%Returning production63.9%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
LT 83.9%
Model-only win chance
LT 83.9%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +60.3%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

6:00 PM ET · USA Net
Gesa Field
23Boise State5-1
Projected28.928.9
Washington State1-6
Projected21.521.5
BOIS 68%win chance32% WSU
BOIS 68%win chance32% WSU
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerBOIS 68% BOIS 68%
Model lineBOIS −6.6BOIS −6.6
Model total50.350.3
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: BOIS 22 · WSU 5 · even 2 BOIS leads
BOISWSU
Offense
35.0Points / game20.1
450.5Total yards / game307.6
6.36Yards / play4.84
216.0Passing yards / game177.6
7.81Yards / pass attempt5.45
66.3%Completion %62.7%
234.5Rushing yards / game130.0
5.43Yards / carry4.19
50.0%Third-down conversion %29.5%
0.50Turnovers / game1.71
0.83Sacks allowed / game3.14
Defense
22.3Points allowed / game27.1
368.2Yards allowed / game383.1
6.80Yards / play allowed5.83
261.3Passing yards allowed / game224.9
8.66Yards / pass attempt allowed7.09
106.8Rushing yards allowed / game158.3
4.45Yards / carry allowed4.66
27.4%Third-down % allowed37.0%
1.00Takeaways / game0.71
2.33Sacks / game1.29
Advanced
+0.325Offense PPA / play−0.056
+0.061Defense PPA / play allowed+0.100
48.7%Offense success rate34.2%
37.4%Defense success rate allowed40.3%
1.24Offense explosiveness1.17
1.70Explosiveness allowed1.32
69.8Plays / game (pace)61.0
641Roster talent (247 composite)630
66.3%Returning production91.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
WSU 31.8%
Model-only win chance
WSU 31.8%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +30.2%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

6:30 PM ET · CW / The CW Network
Canvas Stadium
San Diego State3-4
Projected30.930.9
Colorado State2-4
Projected29.329.3
SDSU 53%win chance47% CSU
SDSU 53%win chance47% CSU
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerSDSU 53% SDSU 53%
Model lineSDSU −2.3SDSU −2.3
Model total59.259.2
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: SDSU 12 · CSU 16 · even 1 CSU leads
SDSUCSU
Offense
23.3Points / game35.7
292.9Total yards / game445.3
4.81Yards / play6.65
148.4Passing yards / game274.8
5.74Yards / pass attempt7.43
55.2%Completion %63.1%
144.4Rushing yards / game170.5
4.13Yards / carry5.68
29.3%Third-down conversion %43.5%
1.43Turnovers / game0.67
1.29Sacks allowed / game0.50
Defense
33.3Points allowed / game43.2
449.0Yards allowed / game509.5
5.70Yards / play allowed8.04
276.6Passing yards allowed / game239.8
8.07Yards / pass attempt allowed10.13
172.4Rushing yards allowed / game269.7
3.88Yards / carry allowed6.80
43.9%Third-down % allowed46.8%
1.14Takeaways / game2.00
2.29Sacks / game1.17
Advanced
−0.061Offense PPA / play+0.269
+0.137Defense PPA / play allowed+0.348
33.7%Offense success rate45.3%
47.3%Defense success rate allowed55.1%
1.28Offense explosiveness1.49
1.08Explosiveness allowed1.24
51.9Plays / game (pace)56.5
609Roster talent (247 composite)640
98.7%Returning production39.6%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
CSU 46.6%
Model-only win chance
CSU 46.6%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +2.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+
Centennial Bank Stadium
Georgia State4-2
Projected29.529.5
Arkansas State3-4
Projected29.729.7
GAST 48%win chance52% ARST
GAST 48%win chance52% ARST
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerARST 52% ARST 52%
Model lineARST −0.7ARST −0.7
Model total58.458.4
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: GAST 22 · ARST 4 · even 3 GAST leads
GASTARST
Offense
36.5Points / game27.4
452.7Total yards / game366.0
6.53Yards / play5.93
246.7Passing yards / game233.0
8.22Yards / pass attempt8.11
65.0%Completion %68.7%
206.0Rushing yards / game133.0
5.24Yards / carry4.03
47.5%Third-down conversion %45.1%
1.67Turnovers / game1.14
0.83Sacks allowed / game1.86
Defense
24.0Points allowed / game26.6
337.3Yards allowed / game379.9
5.49Yards / play allowed6.14
189.2Passing yards allowed / game185.9
6.60Yards / pass attempt allowed7.79
148.2Rushing yards allowed / game194.0
4.51Yards / carry allowed5.11
29.9%Third-down % allowed45.9%
1.00Takeaways / game1.57
3.17Sacks / game0.43
Advanced
+0.275Offense PPA / play+0.133
+0.028Defense PPA / play allowed+0.132
49.8%Offense success rate47.0%
36.6%Defense success rate allowed44.2%
1.29Offense explosiveness1.12
1.36Explosiveness allowed1.27
58.8Plays / game (pace)59.9
574Roster talent (247 composite)606
46.5%Returning production30.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
ARST 51.7%
Model-only win chance
ARST 51.7%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan -1.2%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · SEC Network
Kroger Field
Vanderbilt3-4
Projected19.719.2
15Kentucky6-1
Projected32.433.2
VAN 19%win chance81% UK
VAN 17%win chance83% UK
MoneylineUK −470 · VAN +360
Market lineUK −11.5
Market total51.5
Projected winnerUK 81% UK 83%
Model lineUK −11.7UK −13.8
Model total51.651.8
Model pickKentucky −11.5 50% Kentucky −11.5 2.3 pts
Total pickOver 51.5 50% Over 51.5 0.3 pts
Team statsStat edges: VAN 7 · UK 19 · even 3 UK leads
VANUK
Offense
23.6Points / game32.7
354.4Total yards / game387.9
5.51Yards / play6.07
235.1Passing yards / game221.7
7.59Yards / pass attempt7.46
60.4%Completion %67.8%
119.3Rushing yards / game166.1
3.58Yards / carry4.87
38.5%Third-down conversion %29.1%
1.71Turnovers / game0.71
1.86Sacks allowed / game2.14
Defense
29.7Points allowed / game25.9
365.6Yards allowed / game377.0
5.64Yards / play allowed5.24
219.3Passing yards allowed / game249.7
7.27Yards / pass attempt allowed6.57
146.3Rushing yards allowed / game127.3
4.21Yards / carry allowed3.74
40.9%Third-down % allowed47.1%
1.00Takeaways / game2.29
2.14Sacks / game2.57
Advanced
+0.082Offense PPA / play+0.211
+0.156Defense PPA / play allowed+0.057
39.7%Offense success rate48.6%
44.2%Defense success rate allowed44.4%
1.38Offense explosiveness1.15
1.23Explosiveness allowed1.19
59.0Plays / game (pace)62.3
727Roster talent (247 composite)787
35.4%Returning production19.3%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
UK −9.5 · O/U 52.5
Sportsbook win chance
UK 79.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
UK 80.9%
Model-only win chance
UK 83.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadKentucky −11.5 (−110)-4.1%pass
TotalOver 51.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
MoneylineKentucky −470-2.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · ABC
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
9Ole Miss5-1
Projected25.324.6
7Texas4-2
Projected28.629.3
MISS 40%win chance60% TEX
MISS 37%win chance63% TEX
MoneylineTEX −162 · MISS +136
Market lineTEX −3.0
Market total53.5
Projected winnerTEX 60% TEX 63%
Model lineTEX −3.0TEX −3.8
Model total53.553.5
Model pickTexas −3.0 50% Texas −3.0 0.8 pts
Total pickUnder 53.5 50% Under 53.5 0.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: MISS 12 · TEX 14 · even 3 TEX leads
MISSTEX
Offense
37.5Points / game30.2
444.5Total yards / game361.3
6.52Yards / play5.43
290.7Passing yards / game226.8
7.96Yards / pass attempt7.73
66.7%Completion %64.8%
153.8Rushing yards / game134.5
4.86Yards / carry3.62
47.9%Third-down conversion %41.7%
1.33Turnovers / game1.33
0.83Sacks allowed / game2.83
Defense
23.8Points allowed / game17.8
390.0Yards allowed / game272.5
5.58Yards / play allowed4.15
236.5Passing yards allowed / game166.2
7.55Yards / pass attempt allowed5.63
153.5Rushing yards allowed / game106.3
3.99Yards / carry allowed2.94
44.0%Third-down % allowed33.3%
1.17Takeaways / game0.83
1.83Sacks / game3.17
Advanced
+0.328Offense PPA / play+0.031
+0.126Defense PPA / play allowed−0.014
52.7%Offense success rate42.5%
42.4%Defense success rate allowed34.4%
1.20Offense explosiveness1.19
1.32Explosiveness allowed1.02
60.7Plays / game (pace)63.2
886Roster talent (247 composite)985
50.3%Returning production72.1%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
TEX −8.5 · O/U 54.5
Sportsbook win chance
TEX 59.3%
Market-adjusted win chance
TEX 59.5%
Model-only win chance
TEX 63.5%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadTexas −3.0 (−110)-3.8%pass
TotalUnder 53.5 (−110)-4.5%pass
MoneylineTexas −162-3.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · ACC Network
Kenan Stadium
Syracuse2-4
Projected20.520.5
North Carolina4-2
Projected27.627.6
SYR 31%win chance69% UNC
SYR 31%win chance69% UNC
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerUNC 69% UNC 69%
Model lineUNC −6.5UNC −6.5
Model total48.048.0
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: SYR 12 · UNC 9 · even 8 SYR leads
SYRUNC
Offense
31.7Points / game23.5
449.5Total yards / game329.7
5.58Yards / play5.73
289.8Passing yards / game213.5
7.50Yards / pass attempt7.86
60.8%Completion %59.5%
159.7Rushing yards / game116.2
3.82Yards / carry3.83
42.7%Third-down conversion %37.3%
1.67Turnovers / game1.67
2.50Sacks allowed / game2.17
Defense
25.7Points allowed / game19.2
331.3Yards allowed / game359.0
5.37Yards / play allowed4.96
191.8Passing yards allowed / game211.7
6.81Yards / pass attempt allowed6.11
139.5Rushing yards allowed / game147.3
4.16Yards / carry allowed3.91
35.7%Third-down % allowed43.3%
1.33Takeaways / game1.33
2.50Sacks / game2.17
Advanced
+0.099Offense PPA / play+0.135
+0.040Defense PPA / play allowed+0.012
43.5%Offense success rate46.3%
40.5%Defense success rate allowed42.5%
1.30Offense explosiveness1.13
1.17Explosiveness allowed1.03
76.7Plays / game (pace)55.7
746Roster talent (247 composite)768
35.0%Returning production27.8%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
UNC 69.2%
Model-only win chance
UNC 69.2%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +32.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · NBC
Camp Randall Stadium
19USC6-1
Projected26.027.4
Wisconsin4-2
Projected24.124.4
USC 54%win chance46% WIS
USC 57%win chance43% WIS
MoneylineUSC −130 · WIS +110
Market lineUSC −2.5
Market total49.5
Projected winnerUSC 54% USC 57%
Model lineUSC −2.5USC −2.9
Model total49.951.3
Model pickUSC −2.5 50% USC −2.5 0.4 pts
Total pickOver 49.5 51% Over 49.5 1.8 pts
Team statsStat edges: USC 14 · WIS 12 · even 3 USC leads
USCWIS
Offense
36.4Points / game27.5
462.4Total yards / game351.8
6.67Yards / play5.96
310.1Passing yards / game199.7
9.08Yards / pass attempt7.53
68.6%Completion %54.7%
152.3Rushing yards / game152.2
4.33Yards / carry4.68
51.2%Third-down conversion %42.3%
0.86Turnovers / game1.00
1.00Sacks allowed / game1.00
Defense
25.1Points allowed / game16.7
350.0Yards allowed / game286.7
5.95Yards / play allowed4.32
239.0Passing yards allowed / game171.2
8.37Yards / pass attempt allowed5.71
111.0Rushing yards allowed / game115.5
3.67Yards / carry allowed3.18
32.1%Third-down % allowed38.0%
0.86Takeaways / game1.00
2.14Sacks / game1.33
Advanced
+0.330Offense PPA / play+0.133
+0.087Defense PPA / play allowed−0.050
52.9%Offense success rate38.7%
37.9%Defense success rate allowed35.8%
1.23Offense explosiveness1.44
1.33Explosiveness allowed1.03
64.0Plays / game (pace)54.7
899Roster talent (247 composite)768
59.2%Returning production31.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
USC −1.5 · O/U 52.5
Sportsbook win chance
WIS 45.7%
Market-adjusted win chance
WIS 46.0%
Model-only win chance
WIS 43.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadUSC −2.5 (−110)-4.2%pass
TotalOver 49.5 (−110)-3.1%pass
MoneylineWisconsin +110-3.7%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

7:30 PM ET · CBSSN
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Utah State2-4
Projected21.521.5
Texas State3-3
Projected36.836.8
USU 15%win chance85% TXST
USU 15%win chance85% TXST
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerTXST 85% TXST 85%
Model lineTXST −15.0TXST −15.0
Model total57.757.7
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: USU 10 · TXST 17 · even 2 TXST leads
USUTXST
Offense
14.5Points / game40.0
310.0Total yards / game562.3
4.99Yards / play7.24
189.8Passing yards / game258.8
6.29Yards / pass attempt9.30
52.5%Completion %68.3%
120.2Rushing yards / game303.5
3.76Yards / carry6.09
37.5%Third-down conversion %55.4%
2.00Turnovers / game1.67
3.17Sacks allowed / game1.00
Defense
23.5Points allowed / game32.2
359.7Yards allowed / game418.8
5.13Yards / play allowed5.65
218.8Passing yards allowed / game297.0
6.05Yards / pass attempt allowed7.10
140.8Rushing yards allowed / game121.8
4.14Yards / carry allowed3.77
40.4%Third-down % allowed38.9%
1.17Takeaways / game0.83
1.50Sacks / game1.00
Advanced
−0.067Offense PPA / play+0.398
+0.079Defense PPA / play allowed+0.162
34.1%Offense success rate52.2%
39.6%Defense success rate allowed43.9%
1.40Offense explosiveness1.40
1.20Explosiveness allowed1.30
60.3Plays / game (pace)65.3
544Roster talent (247 composite)625
65.2%Returning production76.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
TXST 85.4%
Model-only win chance
TXST 85.4%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +63.0%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

8:00 PM ET · ESPNU
Yulman Stadium
UTSA6-1
Projected25.325.3
Tulane3-3
Projected26.826.8
UTSA 45%win chance55% TULN
UTSA 45%win chance55% TULN
Moneyline—
Market line—
Market total—
Projected winnerTULN 55% TULN 55%
Model lineTULN −2.1TULN −2.1
Model total51.551.5
Model pick——
Total pick——
Team statsStat edges: UTSA 17 · TULN 4 · even 8 UTSA leads
UTSATULN
Offense
32.3Points / game20.5
410.9Total yards / game332.0
6.15Yards / play5.61
231.7Passing yards / game179.7
7.24Yards / pass attempt6.95
68.8%Completion %54.2%
179.1Rushing yards / game152.3
5.14Yards / carry4.57
36.8%Third-down conversion %36.6%
0.43Turnovers / game0.83
1.29Sacks allowed / game2.50
Defense
27.0Points allowed / game21.7
400.0Yards allowed / game420.7
5.61Yards / play allowed5.95
200.1Passing yards allowed / game208.2
6.67Yards / pass attempt allowed7.76
199.9Rushing yards allowed / game212.5
4.84Yards / carry allowed4.85
37.3%Third-down % allowed45.6%
1.00Takeaways / game1.17
0.86Sacks / game2.00
Advanced
+0.206Offense PPA / play+0.058
+0.094Defense PPA / play allowed+0.106
46.0%Offense success rate32.8%
41.4%Defense success rate allowed41.8%
1.11Offense explosiveness1.54
1.22Explosiveness allowed1.19
64.7Plays / game (pace)59.8
656Roster talent (247 composite)665
66.9%Returning production21.0%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
— · —
Sportsbook win chance
—
Market-adjusted win chance
TULN 55.0%
Model-only win chance
TULN 55.0%
BetSideExp. valueStake
Moneylinenan +4.9%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.

10:00 PM ET · CW
University Stadium (NM)
North Dakota State6-1
Projected20.116.4
New Mexico5-1
Projected25.725.8
NDSU 34%win chance66% UNM
NDSU 26%win chance74% UNM
MoneylineUNM −192 · NDSU +160
Market lineUNM −4.5
Market total46.5
Projected winnerUNM 66% UNM 74%
Model lineUNM −4.8UNM −7.5
Model total45.442.5
Model pickNew Mexico −4.5 51% New Mexico −4.5 3.0 pts
Total pickUnder 46.5 52% Under 46.5 4.0 pts
Team statsStat edges: NDSU 8 · UNM 17 · even 3 UNM leads
NDSUUNM
Offense
29.4Points / game39.7
362.0Total yards / game377.5
5.56Yards / play5.90
187.3Passing yards / game163.0
7.76Yards / pass attempt8.65
65.1%Completion %57.5%
174.7Rushing yards / game214.5
4.26Yards / carry4.75
41.3%Third-down conversion %41.6%
0.86Turnovers / game0.67
1.43Sacks allowed / game2.50
Defense
11.3Points allowed / game10.5
246.0Yards allowed / game261.8
4.25Yards / play allowed4.49
133.9Passing yards allowed / game169.8
5.61Yards / pass attempt allowed6.18
112.1Rushing yards allowed / game92.0
3.30Yards / carry allowed2.98
35.9%Third-down % allowed30.8%
2.00Takeaways / game3.50
1.71Sacks / game3.17
Advanced
+0.143Offense PPA / play+0.204
−0.219Defense PPA / play allowed−0.231
42.0%Offense success rate44.0%
34.5%Defense success rate allowed29.4%
1.32Offense explosiveness1.35
1.06Explosiveness allowed1.33
59.1Plays / game (pace)51.8
516Roster talent (247 composite)568
—Returning production58.2%

Box-score stats are season to date (last season for teams that haven't played yet). Highlighted = better; gaps smaller than a quarter of the league-wide spread count as even.

Details
Opening line
UNM −3.5 · O/U 46.5
Sportsbook win chance
UNM 63.1%
Market-adjusted win chance
UNM 65.7%
Model-only win chance
UNM 74.3%
BetSideExp. valueStake
SpreadNew Mexico −4.5 (−110)-3.5%pass
TotalUnder 46.5 (−110)-1.4%pass
MoneylineNew Mexico −192-2.1%pass

Value and stakes use the market-adjusted numbers, the only ones that held up in testing.